Photo credit: Christopher Pasatieri

There is more than one team that needs a second-line center at the deadline. With a thin pool to draw from it may be easier for the Capitals to secure the services of a unicorn than a pivot to provide auxiliary scoring. With $7,357,085 in cap space available for Washington, RMNB takes a look at who may be attractive candidates.

If we restrict our search for true second-line centers, we need some parameters. I like to use Puck Prospectus’ definition, which is: they score at least 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes. I will also limit it to players who are on teams projected to miss the playoffs, have played at least 30 games this season and have seen significant minutes at even strength.

Here is what we are left with:

We can throw a few names out based on “been there, done that” (Eric Belanger) and long term cost (Jason Spezza, Rostislav Olesz and Matt Stajan). I dismiss pivots who carry a long-term cost for two reasons:

1. Despite what Evgeny Kuznetsov is saying, I fully expect him to be in the discussion for the second-line center spot in a year or two.
2. I haven’t seen a desire from Caps General Manager George McPhee to take on long-term salary via a trade or free agency.

Brian Little probably has one too many years left on his deal, plus he plays for a division rival that is sure to be in playoff hunt next year. So he’s out too.

That leaves Marty Reasoner and R.J. Umberger.

Umberger is the “sexy” choice, but has played with better teammates (Corsi, Rel, QoT). He has also benefited from being deployed in the offensive zone (Ozone%) more frequently. Reasoner, on the other hand, has played with some really poor line-mates yet still maintains a healthy 1.75 points per 60 minutes of even strength (P/60) — which would be good for 4th best on the Caps’ roster. Plus, he is winning over 58% of defensive zone face-offs this year despite starting in the offensive zone only 40% of the time! Add to that his UFA status after this season and I think he could be a great addition to Caps for their playoff push.

Photo credit: Greg Fiume

Signing Alexander Semin to a one-year extension was a good move. It limits the Capitals exposure to the potential downside if he doesn’t preform to expectations and lets them remain flexible enough to trade Semin if they choose. And while we are on the subject of Alex contracts, do you think there will come a time where Washington will feel constrained by Ovechkin’s monster deal?

I think we can all agree that paying $9-10 million for a player who will score less than 30 goals puts a cramp in the salary cap. In fact, it is somewhat easy to estimate how much of a hindrance it might become. Using Tom Awad’s Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) metric, we can see when the Great 8′s contract will become the Great Burden. GVT measures a skaters contribution on both the offensive and defensive side of the puck, as well as the shootout. The higher the number, the better that skater is over what a replacement level player would produce.

In an effort to reduce the amount of “Ovechkin will never not be good” comments, I am going to have him follow the same career path as Wayne Gretzky. When calculating Ovechkin’s value, he will depreciate at the rate Gretzky did at the same age for the life of his contract. Note that we don’t know for sure what Ovechkin’s 2011 GVT will be, so I am going to use Gretzky’s regression for that as well. I think the regression model used will be more generous than what will actually happen, adding some error in Ovechkin’s favor. Wins are determined by GVT, with six goals above threshold equal to one victory. We will also assume wins get more expensive every season and that the cost of them will increase 4% each year. When we say “cost,” we are asking “what would it cost in the open market to replace this type of production.” Salary info from CapGeek.

First, let me say that from a business perspective, it is a great deal. If I am completely right with this projection (obviously I am not) then the merchandise revenue, ticket sales and nachos sold will more than make up for a $25 million deficit. However, after year 2014 or 2015 from a hockey production perspective, we should start to see the Caps paying more than what the on-ice value they’re getting is worth. When you are trying to win a Cup in the salary cap era, that is not good.

When the Twitterverse found out that the Caps would make a “significant player announcement”, speculation ran wild:

• Will Brooks Laich retire and become a NASCAR Inside Front Tire Changer?
• Will Samantha Casey become a Red Rocker?
• Will Slapshot become the new sponsor for Muscle Milk?

The answer was revealed today: Nicklas Backstrom has signed a 10-year/$67 million contract extension with the Washington Capitals. I know what you are thinking: “That’s a lot of IKEA furniture!”  However, Backstrom was due to become a restricted free agent July 1st, but now my unborn children may have an opportunity to see a Backstrom-to-Ovechkin goal.

A new question presents itself:  Is Backstrom one of the biggest bargains in the NHL, or will he be a cap buster for years to come?

First, here are some of the accomplishments (from the Caps 2009-10 Guide) for the Swede whose jersey your girlfriend wears:

• Sixth in NHL history in assists in the player’s first three years, trailing only Wayne Gretzky, Peter Stastny, Denis Savard, Mario Lemieux, and Sidney Crosby.
• Only Backstrom, Gretzky and Stastny each had at least 55 assists in each of their first three seasons.
• Ranks third in the league in assists over the last three years (trailing Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton).
• One of only 19 players (three of them Caps) averaging at least a point per game over the last three seasons.
• The top-scoring player from his draft class (2006).
• Has never missed an NHL game in his career (246 games).

Anytime you are mentioned in the same sentence with Gretzky, that’s a good thing (unless it’s about the Coyotes or gambling).  But to get a sense of where Backstrom is and where his career could end up, we take a look at those players that are most similar to Backstrom using SABR’s similarity scores.

Backstrom currently has 246 Games played, 69 Goals, 189 assists and 258 points at age 22 through the first three years of career, with a 2010/11 salary cap number of $6.7 million. Similar active players to him, through the same time period/age and in order of similarity, include:

1. Evgeni Malkin, $8.7 mil 2010/11 Cap number
2. Sidney Crosby, $8.7 mil
3. Anze Kopitar, $6.8 mil
4. Eric Staal, $8.25

On the surface, we see Backstrom may be slightly underpaid compared to his peer group–  thus giving the Caps more room to acquire other crucial pieces to the Stanley Cup puzzle.  Still, $67M is nothing to sneeze at, and today was a huge success for Nicky and the organization alike.

Before I jump into the fray, there are a few things I wanted to note upfront:

(4) There will be numbers, many of which I make assumptions about and do hand-wavy things with. Precision would be great, but I don’t quite have the tools or the available data at my disposal to do things completely accurately.

Alrighty then. So, what should the Capitals do about Alexander Semin? I’m going to go through each option to the best of my ability, to see which branch bears the best fruit.

Option 1 – Keep Semin for the rest of the year and then let him walk.

How much is this worth to the Capitals?

Well we know that Semin is being paid $4.6 M this year and will be a restricted free agent after the season. I don’t know how much he’s worth as a player, but I can make an educated guess.

Based on this analysis, it looks like forwards make about $5 M per point per game (it’s for a pair of forwards, but a worthwhile starting point). Semin is at .86 pt/g career, 1.3 pt/g last year, and .94 p/g this year. Call it 1 pt/g, and you’ve got $5 M.

More substantially, using their VUKOTA projection system, Puck Prospectus had Semin as being worth 15.4 Goals Versus Threshold (goals above what a replacement level player would produce) in their pre-season projections – which was third on the team to Ovie (27.6) and Backstrom (17.4). With 6 goals being approximately equal to one win, and one win being worth about $2 M, Semin would be worth $5.13 M (how convenient). He was at 22.3 GVT last year though, which would be $7.43 M. If you split the difference to about $6 M, then that means Semin is “underpaid” (relative to his assumed free market value) by about $1.4 M this season. That is value that is accrued to the team. Prorating it going forward, and it’s about $1 M.

Then you need to account for – beyond his base production – how much he’d help the Capitals’ chances of getting to the playoffs this year and how much that’s worth.

Estimates for playoff revenue I’ve seen indicate about $1 M per game a team plays. Last year the average team playoff team played in a little over 10 games, so we could estimate that making the playoffs is worth about $10 M. Maybe tack on another $5 M for increased revenues due to a boost in attendance the following year(s), and an estimated average playoff bonus comes in at around $15 M. (This is about half of what it is in baseball, which makes some really loose intuitive sense as baseball teams have yearly revenues that are about double hockey teams’. Very loose sense.)

If we say that keeping Semin on the team increases the Capitals’ chances of making the playoffs (above what his replacement would do) by about 2% then he’s worth an additional $0.3 M to the team this year ($15 M times 2%).

The final piece to this puzzle is the compensation the Capitals would get when another team signed Semin. As a player with an assumed value of $5+ M, Washington should get back a first-round draft-pick, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick. To properly value the picks we need to know what kind of players they translate into. Based on this analysis, you’re getting – on average – an OK NHL player, a very good minor leaguer, and an OK minor leaguer (who maybe gets a shot). I don’t really know what that “means”, but I’ll assign values to them (production minus costs) of $1 M, $0.25 M, and $0 M respectively (hand waving is fun!). That’s total compensation of $1.25 M.

Add it all up, and the Capitals – who’ll be keeping Semin through the rest of the year and then letting him walk – are coming out ahead by about $2.55 M.

Option 2 – Keep Semin for the rest of the year and then sign him.

Most of the work for this one has already been down (everything through the compensation). Since Semin is a restricted free agent, one might expect the Capitals to be able to sign him cheaper than his free market value (maybe $6.25 M going forward). If they give him a 4 year, $24 M contract ($6 M a year) then they come out ahead by $1 M.

I have the excess value from signing Semin as about equal to the draft-pick compensation value for losing him, which would make sense if the system works properly.

There is some potential opportunity cost associated with signing him since the team might not be able to make other additions due to the salary cap, but I don’t consider that a big issue. The reason is, it doesn’t really matter where your value comes from (presuming you count it correctly). We’re trying to maximize team wins with a given amount of money, so if the same dollars would need to be spent on a free agent anyway it’s pretty equivalent (not taking into account what holes the team has). If Semin makes the team 2.5 wins better a season (costing $5 M), then losing Semin and using that $5 M to upgrade at 2 other spots by 1.25 wins each still leaves the team at +2.5 win. Not perfect of course, but the general idea shouldn’t be too far off.

So the total excess value to the team is once again $2.6 M. The difference between letting him walk and signing him depends largely on if he would accept a below market rate (and I think he might potentially be a little overpriced), and if that money could instead be used on even more undervalued assets and if the Capitals have places where they can improve easily (ie, big holes). I’d say they probably do, but what do I know?

Option 3 – Trade Semin at the trade deadline

Since Semin’s value is around $2.6 M, the team would need to receive more than that in a trade to make it worthwhile. They would take a slight hit to their playoff odds this year, but if they could get a couple quality players at positions of need who are still young and cheap, then I would say to go for it. If the general consensus opinion of Semin’s abilities is actually higher than his expected production, then you cash in that overvalued asset if you can.

Now if you assume that all NHL actors (as they say in economics) are rational and have perfect information and all that (ha!), then it would follow that Semin’s contract would exactly equal his value and what he would bring over in a trade would exactly equal to his value, and so the correct thing to do would be to keep him for the year and then let him walk (since that’s the only thing that would provide a surplus to the team).

In the real world, you keep him/trade him based on his specific contract demands and exactly what kind of package you could get back in a trade. I’ll leave that speculation as an exercise to the reader.

Daniel is a writer for the highly informative Fanball Sponsored Orioles Blog Camden Crazies, which you can view here. If you would like to comment on his statistics or offer any creative criticism, please comment below or email us here.