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	<title>Russian Machine Never Breaks &#187; Second Line Centers</title>
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	<description>A cheerfully demented Washington Capitals site with a healthy fixation on Alex Ovechkin and his Russian bros. CRASH THE NET!</description>
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		<title>Second-Line Centers And Unicorns</title>
		<link>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2011/02/11/second-line-centers-and-unicorns/</link>
		<comments>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2011/02/11/second-line-centers-and-unicorns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Feb 2011 18:45:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Greenberg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistical Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Little]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Belanger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evgeny Kuznetsov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George McPhee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Spezza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marty Reasoner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Stajan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R.J. Umberger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rostislav Olesz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Salary Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Second Line Centers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/?p=13979</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Photo credit: Christopher Pasatieri There is more than one team that needs a second-line center at the deadline. With a thin pool to draw from it may be easier for the Capitals to secure the services of a unicorn than a pivot to provide auxiliary scoring. With $7,357,085 in cap space available for Washington, RMNB takes a [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/marty-reasoner.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13992" style="border: solid 1px #000" title="Marty Reasoner" src="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/marty-reasoner.jpg" alt="Marty Reasoner" width="607" /></a></p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Christopher Pasatieri</em></p>
<p>There is more than one team that needs a second-line center at the deadline. With a thin pool to draw from it may be easier for the Capitals to secure the services of a unicorn than a pivot to provide auxiliary scoring. With <a href="http://capgeek.com/index.php?date=2011-02-11&amp;quick_launch=2011-02-28" target="_blank">$7,357,085 in cap space</a> available for Washington, RMNB takes a look at who may be attractive candidates.</p>
<p><span id="more-13979"></span></p>
<p>If we restrict our search for true second-line centers, we need some parameters. I like to use Puck Prospectus&#8217; definition, which is: they <a href="http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=387" target="_blank">score at least 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes</a>. I will also limit it to players who are on <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi" target="_blank">teams projected to miss the playoffs</a>, have played at least 30 games this season and have seen significant minutes at even strength.</p>
<p>Here is what we are left with:</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; table-layout: fixed; text-align: center; margin-bottom: 15px" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="607">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="xl272501 statHead2" width="125" height="17">Name</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Team</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">P/60</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Corsi Rel QoC</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Corsi Rel QoT</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Corsi Rel</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">DefZ W%</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Ozone%</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Yrs Left</td>
<td class="xl282501 statHead2">Cap hit</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501">Bryan Little</td>
<td class="xl222501">ATL</td>
<td class="xl232501">2.11</td>
<td class="xl242501">0.369</td>
<td class="xl242501">1.010</td>
<td class="xl222501">5.7</td>
<td class="xl252501">50.0%</td>
<td class="xl252501">52.0%</td>
<td class="xl222501">2</td>
<td class="xl262501">$2.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501 greyTD">R.J. Umberger</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">CBJ</td>
<td class="xl232501 greyTD">2.49</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">0.468</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">2.678</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">8.3</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">55.4%</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">55.2%</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">1</td>
<td class="xl262501 greyTD">$3.75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501">Matt Stajan</td>
<td class="xl222501">CGY</td>
<td class="xl232501">2.18</td>
<td class="xl242501">0.615</td>
<td class="xl242501">-0.436</td>
<td class="xl222501">2.1</td>
<td class="xl252501">49.4%</td>
<td class="xl252501">55.0%</td>
<td class="xl222501">3</td>
<td class="xl262501">$3.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501 greyTD">Marty Reasoner</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">FLA</td>
<td class="xl232501 greyTD">1.75</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">0.560</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">-1.812</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">-7.1</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">58.8%</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">40.4%</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">0</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">UFA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501">Rostislav Olesz</td>
<td class="xl222501">FLA</td>
<td class="xl232501">2.02</td>
<td class="xl242501">0.705</td>
<td class="xl242501">-0.271</td>
<td class="xl222501">0.9</td>
<td class="xl252501">45.1%</td>
<td class="xl252501">48.7%</td>
<td class="xl222501">3</td>
<td class="xl262501">$3.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501 greyTD">Jason Spezza</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">OTT</td>
<td class="xl232501 greyTD">1.86</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">0.622</td>
<td class="xl242501 greyTD">-1.631</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">4.4</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">56.0%</td>
<td class="xl252501 greyTD">48.5%</td>
<td class="xl222501 greyTD">4</td>
<td class="xl262501 greyTD">$7.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="xl152501">Eric Belanger</td>
<td class="xl222501">PHX</td>
<td class="xl232501">1.76</td>
<td class="xl242501">0.430</td>
<td class="xl242501">1.700</td>
<td class="xl222501">6.4</td>
<td class="xl252501">56.9%</td>
<td class="xl252501">48.9%</td>
<td class="xl222501">0</td>
<td class="xl222501">UFA</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>We can throw a few names out based on &#8220;been there, done that&#8221; (<strong>Eric Belanger</strong>) and long term cost (<strong>Jason Spezza</strong>, <strong>Rostislav Olesz</strong> and <strong>Matt Stajan</strong>). I dismiss pivots who carry a long-term cost for two reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/12/26/evgeny-kuznetsov-on-the-ice-with-a-parachute/" target="_blank">Despite what <strong>Evgeny Kuznetsov </strong>is saying</a>, I fully expect him to be in the discussion for the second-line center spot in a year or two.</li>
<li>I haven&#8217;t seen a desire from Caps General Manager George McPhee to take on long-term salary via a trade or free agency.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>Brian Little</strong> probably has one too many years left on his deal, plus he plays for a division rival that is sure to be in playoff hunt next year. So he&#8217;s out too.</p>
<p>That leaves <strong>Marty Reasoner</strong> and <strong>R.J. Umberger</strong>.</p>
<p>Umberger is the &#8220;sexy&#8221; choice, but has played with better teammates (Corsi, Rel, QoT). He has also benefited from being deployed in the offensive zone (Ozone%) more frequently. Reasoner, on the other hand, has played with some really poor line-mates yet still maintains a healthy 1.75 points per 60 minutes of even strength (P/60) &#8212; which would be <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?s=20&amp;f1=2010_s&amp;f2=5v5&amp;f5=WSH&amp;f7=30-&amp;c=0+1+3+5+17+18+19+20" target="_blank">good for 4th best</a> on the Caps&#8217; roster. Plus, he is winning over 58% of defensive zone face-offs this year despite starting in the offensive zone only 40% of the time! Add to that his UFA status after this season and I think he could be a great addition to Caps for their playoff push.</p>
 
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Why It&#8217;s Lombardi Or Bust</title>
		<link>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/06/26/why-its-lombardi-or-bust/</link>
		<comments>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/06/26/why-its-lombardi-or-bust/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jun 2010 04:17:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Greenberg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brendan Morrison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brooks Laich]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Belanger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Lombardi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Nylander]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicklas Backstrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Second Line Centers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tomas Fleischmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington Capitals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/?p=5389</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sure, maybe it was stating the obvious when we said the second-line center the Caps should target is Matthew Lombardi, but it&#8217;s more than that. If we look at the numbers, I think he is the ONLY viable option in free agency. Luckily our first line center is set in stone for the next decade. [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/matthew-lombardi.jpg"><img src="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/matthew-lombardi.jpg" alt="matthew-lombardi" title="matthew-lombardi" width="607"  class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5399" style="border: solid 1px #00204d" /></a></p>
<p>Sure, maybe it was stating the obvious when we said <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/06/24/they-can-take-our-centers-but-they-can’t-take-our-dreams/" target="_blank">the second-line center the Caps should target is <strong>Matthew Lombardi</strong></a>, but it&#8217;s more than that. If we look at the numbers, I think he is the ONLY viable option in free agency.</p>
<p>Luckily <a class="vt-p" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/contract-details-for-backstrom.html" target="_blank">our first line center is set in stone for the next decade</a>. You may have heard of him; he&#8217;s kind of a big deal. But then there is quite a drop off:</p>
<p><span id="more-5389"></span></p>
<p>Under contract are <strong>Michael Nylander</strong> and <strong>Brooks Laich</strong>. The <a class="vt-p" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/mcphee-on-alzner-hes-shown-us.html" target="_blank">team will pay Nylander&#8217;s $3 million salary next season but will make sure  it doesn&#8217;t count against the salary cap</a> by assigning him to Europe  (again) or sending him to Hershey, leaving just Brooksy.</p>
<p>There is RFA <strong>Tomas Fleischmann</strong>, who, if you ask his agent, is <a class="vt-p" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/agent-caps-tomas-fleischmann-t.html" target="_blank">comparable to Montreal center Tomas Plekanec</a>. So, thanks, but no thanks.</p>
<p><a class="vt-p" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/brendan-morrison-wont-be-back.html" target="_blank">GM George  McPhee has said the Caps do not plan to re-sign center <strong>Brendan Morrison</strong></a>, a UFA.</p>
<p>That leaves <strong>Eric Belanger</strong>, who despite being an UFA is <a class="vt-p" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/mcphee-on-alzner-hes-shown-us.html" target="_blank">&#8220;still on the team&#8217;s radar.&#8221;</a></p>
<p>So, at center we have Backstrom&#8211; possibly Belanger&#8211; and Laich, who may be better suited to LW.</p>
<p>If we look at <a class="vt-p" href="http://puckstopshere.blogspot.com/2005/07/goals-created.html" target="_blank">Goals Created</a> for Belanger, we see he created 14.3 goals in 77 games. Or .7 per 60 minutes of ice time. That&#8217;s our benchmark. I am <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.csnwashington.com/pages/landing_09?blockID=241904" target="_blank">not</a> <a class="vt-p" href="http://nhl.fanhouse.com/2010/06/02/nhl-free-agents-ranking-the-top-50/" target="_blank">alone</a> in thinking Belanger is at best a #3 center, so any option the Caps consider has to be an improvement over Belanger &#8211; or they should simply sign Belanger and hope for the best.</p>
<p>With <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jl8WU9z1imnvwmp66qJ-t2QRLQZAD9GGLKJ80" target="_blank">Plekanec</a> and <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/sharks/2010-06-24-marleau-pavelski-sign_N.htm" target="_blank">Marleau</a> off the table, the free agent options become:</p>
<p><strong>Vinny Prospal,</strong> who created 19.9 goals last season, and <strong>Saku Koivu</strong>, who created 18.2 goals. Both will be over 35 years old next season, and the stats on centers over 35 are not encouraging:</p>
<p><span><em><a class="vt-p" href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=single&amp;year_min=&amp;year_max=&amp;season_start=1&amp;season_end=-1&amp;age_min=35&amp;age_max=99&amp;birth_country=&amp;franch_id=&amp;is_active=&amp;is_hof=&amp;pos=C&amp;handed=&amp;c1stat=games_played&amp;c1comp=gt&amp;c1val=50&amp;c2stat=assists&amp;c2comp=gt&amp;c2val=30&amp;c3stat=goals&amp;c3comp=gt&amp;c3val=15&amp;c4stat=&amp;c4comp=gt&amp;c4val=&amp;order_by=games_played" target="_blank">From 1987-88 to  2009-10</a>, there have been only 35 centers, aged 35 or older, who have played more than 50 games, had </em></span><span><em>15+ goals and </em></span><span><em>30+ assists in a season &#8211; the average stats for a second-line centerman. </em>That&#8217;s fewer than two players per year!<br />
</span></p>
<p><strong>Olli Jokinen</strong> (16.6 goals created) &amp; <strong>Matt Cullen</strong> (16.3) are only slight upgrades to Belanger&#8211; leaving <strong>Matt Lombardi</strong>, who created 18.4 goals and at 27 years old is just now entering what could be the prime of his career.</p>
<p>Have a better option? Let us know in the comments.</p>
 
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>They Can Take Our Centers, But They Can’t Take Our Dreams</title>
		<link>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/06/24/they-can-take-our-centers-but-they-can%e2%80%99t-take-our-dreams/</link>
		<comments>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2010/06/24/they-can-take-our-centers-but-they-can%e2%80%99t-take-our-dreams/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jun 2010 03:45:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Neil Greenberg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Lombardi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NHL Free Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patrick Marleau]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Second Line Centers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tomas Plekanec]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/?p=5346</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[First, the Montreal Canadiens signed leading scorer Tomas Plekanec to a six-year, $30 million contract on Tuesday. Then, the San Jose Sharks sign Patrick Marleau to a four-year contract a week before he would have become a free agent. This eliminated the two best (albeit pricey) options the Caps had to fulfill a glaring need: [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="vt-p" href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mathew-lombardi.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5365" style="border: solid 1px #00204d" title="mathew-lombardi" src="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mathew-lombardi.jpg" alt="mathew-lombardi" width="607" /></a></p>
<div id="attachment_5368" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 210px"><a class="vt-p" href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mathew-lombardi-portrait.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-5368" title="mathew-lombardi-portrait" src="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mathew-lombardi-portrait-200x300.jpg" alt="This man may be the answer to the Capitals Second Line Center Woes. " width="200" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">This man may be the answer to the Capitals Second Line Center Woes. </p></div>
<p>First, the <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jl8WU9z1imnvwmp66qJ-t2QRLQZAD9GGLKJ80" target="_blank">Montreal Canadiens signed leading scorer Tomas Plekanec to a six-year, $30 million contract</a> on Tuesday. Then, the <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/sharks/2010-06-24-marleau-pavelski-sign_N.htm" target="_blank">San Jose Sharks sign Patrick Marleau to a four-year contract</a> a week before he would have  become a free agent. This eliminated the two best (albeit pricey) options the Caps had to fulfill a glaring need: second-line center.</p>
<p>So we panic right? I mean, <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083944/quotes" target="_blank">it&#8217;s over, Johnny</a>, right?</p>
<p><a class="vt-p" href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/quotes" target="_blank">Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!</a></p>
<p>Is this <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/16105.html" target="_blank">Washingtonian photo contest</a> (where my picture &#8220;<span id="pds-answer3379442"> </span>Taking in the Sights&#8221; is in second place and could use some votes) over? Nope. (Mostly because voting ends June 30th. Seriously <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/16105.html" target="_blank">go vote for me</a>.)</p>
<p>Bet you&#8217;re asking, &#8220;Then who, hot shot?&#8221;</p>
<p>We’ll tell you who.</p>
<p><span id="more-5346"></span></p>
<p>Because even though this NHL free agent season is sure to be overshadowed by a <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gi6uENIj7tKqtGt_ol-ObB63_oVQD9GHN7DO1" target="_blank">&#8220;scary&#8221; NBA Free Agent class</a>, there’s a second-line center available that the Caps should target: <strong>Matthew Lombardi</strong>.</p>
<p>Don’t believe us? Okay, fine. Keep sitting there, re-reading the Plekanic and Marleau signings and entering numbers on <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.capgeek.com/cap_calculator.php?Team=30" target="_blank">Capgeek</a> trying to figure out how the Caps can make a trade for one of them.</p>
<p>Keep on sitting there, ignoring that Lombardi brings <a class="vt-p" href="http://nhl.fanhouse.com/2010/06/02/nhl-free-agents-ranking-the-top-50/" target="_blank">blinding speed to the table and is one of the fastest players in  the NHL</a> contributing to a career-high 53 points in 2009-10.</p>
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<p>Keep sitting there, ignoring that he plays <a class="vt-p" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/The-10-UFA-centers-you-d-actually-want-on-your-t?urn=nhl,250066&amp;utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">good two-way hockey and is aces on the power play</a> with 16 power play points while leading PHX skaters with 3:20 of TOI/Gm on the Power Play.</p>
<p>Okay, okay, <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.csnwashington.com/pages/landing_09?blockID=241904" target="_blank">he’s not a No. 1 center</a>, but you get the point, right? I mean, <a class="vt-p" href="http://dc.sbnation.com/2010/6/23/1533255/nicklas-backstrom-selke-trophy-capitals-nhl-awards" target="_blank">Caps have a pretty good number one center now</a>.</p>
<p>Speaking of things that should be number one, <a class="vt-p" href="http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/16105.html" target="_blank">please go vote for me</a>.</p>
 
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