No More Southeast Division, No Big Deal

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Before tonight’s home opener, the Washington Capitals will raise a new Southeast Division Champions banner for the last time. The Capitals won half of the Southeast’s 14 division titles since 1998, but as of this season they will have to compete in the tougher Metropolitan Division, a sort of super-sized Patrick Division.

Some think the change will be disastrous for the Caps. “They will actually have to play against some tough teams in arguably the league’s toughest division,”  the Pensblog said in their division preview story.

That’s not entirely correct.

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Climbing the Southleast

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After spending the last two months in the basement, the Caps have clawed their way into a three-way tie for second place in the Southeast. They’re still six long points out of first, but this thing sure as hell ain’t over yet. The Caps and the Canes meet for the last time on April 6. It’s going to be huge.

Please take a good long gander at those standings– because after this season the Southeast is going the way of the dodo, Fred Durst, and the Capstronaut. Next season, the Caps will be playing in the Patrick++ Division.

And you thought you hated Pittsburgh now.

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Can The Capitals Win The Southeast Division?

Alex Ovechkin celebrates

Photo credit: Don Heupel

The Washington Capitals are in second place in the Southeast Division, only one point behind the leading Tampa Bay Lightning with 21 games remaining this season. Can the Caps catch them?

As usual, we will ask the Monte Carlo Machine to simulate the rest of the season. To determine the chance of winning any individual game we will use the Log5 method. Log5 is a method of estimating the winning percentage when two teams play each other. The formula is:

W%(A v. B) = W%(A)*(1 – W%(B))/(W%(A)*(1 – W%(B)) + (1 – W%(A))*W%(B))

Since we know what the win percentage is for both Washington and Tampa Bay, and their remaining schedule, we can pop these results in, run the Machine 10,000 times and see how often the Caps come out ahead of the Lightning in the division.

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