Whew!  How ’bout that game last night?  The Washington Capitals beat the Montreal Canadiens in a plum zinger of a hockey game.  John Carlson and Nick Backstrom summoned some playoff heroics for us, but there’s a problem: they’re both clean-shaven.  Do they know something we don’t?

Just between you and me, RMNB might have taken the celebration too far.  The word hangover seems understated; it’s more like an aftermath.  Compounding the problem, Caps Nation is looking increasingly more haggard.  Scanning the #beardpact channel, I’m seeing a broad spectrum of growth.  Before we get to the parade of stubble, let’s check in with the Russian Machinists.

El Hefe Ian Oland is cheering up, but he’s still #1 on the  most likely to shave list.  Do not let him.

Sentence-maker Peter Hassett is cheerful despite looking terrible.

Numerical Savant Neil Greenberg‘s whimsy declined somewhat in the second period last night.

Even the elusive Russian correspondent Fedor Fedin is getting in on the action!

Parade of Stubble!

It’s never too late to join #beardpact!  Hide your razors now and post your pic on Twitter with the hashtag.  Support your fellow fans who chose to look like serial killers, especially the high-risk ones (like Ian) who might bail.

The magic is starting to work.  Don’t quit now!

How much did last night suck?  True story:  Peter and Ian had a big fight about writing the game recap.  Peter was too grumpy to write it, and Ian was too grumpy to put up with Peter’s hissy fit.  Today, they exchanged LOLcats and everything seems fine again.  For now.

Is the change of mood due to the Caps’ pathetic overtime loss, or is something more sinister behind it?  Could it be that our nascent facial hair is turning us into hyper-masculine, moody bastards?  The intention of #beardpact was to create levity and togetherness among Caps fans, but it may have gone awry.  Let’s take this time to redouble our efforts.  No change from yesterday: sixteen wins stand between our team and glory.  Within that increment there must be a lot of dudes with itchy necks and annoyed girlfriends/wives/platonic opposite-sex companions.

Let’s check in with the RMNB staff, all of whom could use a hug today.

Imperator Ian Oland has a long way to go.

Wordsmith Peter “Neckbeard” Hassett‘s anger is 50% last night’s loss and 50% wanting to shave.

Vegas oddsmakers have math-man Neil Greenberg‘s odds of bailing on #beardpact before Monday at 80%.

Please share words of encouragement below.  Neil is clearly way ahead, but unhappy about it.  Ian is in dead last place, and Peter is going to two weddings in the next week.  Help is needed!

Parade of Stubble!

Thornbury is thankfully using a much less creepy picture than last time.

Brother blogger RockTheRed is sideways, but looking manly.

RMNB associate/bad photographer Stevie K ‘s beard will scary soon.

@raveygirl17 spites me, doing that fake moustache thing I hate.

@capsforthecup proves that paper goat > fake moustache every time.

@Darbish is the example to which we must all aspire.  *Applause*

If you’re growing a playoff beard, get thee to Beard-A-Thon with the quickness.  Then post your pictures on Twitter with the hashtag #beardpact, so that we may congratulate/mock you.  Other playoff desiderata include fingernails, dyed hair, piercings, jewelry, and anything else you can think of.

Take one for the team, guys.  Tomorrow is another day.  It may be itchy, but we don’t have to lose!

What follows is a peek into a disturbed mind, wherein the machinations of p-values and standard deviations are comprehended with ease.  Abandon all hope, ye who read on, of understanding what Stevie K now lays at your feet; let the numbers wash over you and ease you into a narcotic stupor.  Trip the light fantastic amidst a really big spreadsheet.   I promise to bold the important stuff that makes sense to normal human beings.

I took the Standings page from ESPN and pasted it into a JMP data table, then manually input simulated results for every game. Simulated results required that the Caps win, and that for every other game, whichever team had more points going into the game would lose in regulation. The only exception is a game between Chicago and Phoenix on 3/23, where they have the same point total. Phoenix gets simulated to win this game because Chicago has more games remaining.

The columns at the end had JMP formulas in them.

• GAMES REMAINING is just 82 – today’s GP – games they’ve played so far in the simulation.
• POINTS UPDATED is PTS + all of the simulated game results so far
• Available Points is 2*GAMES REMAINING
• Can beat or tie Caps? is if (Available Points >= Caps(POINTS UPDATED)-OtherTeam's(POINTS UPDATED),1,0)

So each day of the remaining schedule I would make a new column, simulate the results, and update the 4 columns at the end. Once there were no more teams with a 1 in the last column, the Caps had won the Presidents’  Trophy. It occurs immediately at the end of the Ottawa game, where the Caps have 76GP and 114PTS. Chicago has 74GP and 97PTS.

Let’s go Caps.

Would you trust this man with your statistics?

You can view Stevie K’s inane spreadsheet here.

Okay, you can keep reading again.  Here’s what this means: if the Caps win every game, and all the other contenders lose every game, the soonest the Caps could win the Prez is after the March 30th game against the Senators (which we’ll be attending).  The god of statistics, MC Stephen Hawking, deems this unlikely.  Still, the projections favor the Caps to win first seed for the first time ever.

Let’s all take a moment to thank Stevie K. for giving us the most incomprehensible report since the last time he contributed to the blog.  (We kid because we love, K.  This is awesome.  Chipotle is on me next time!)

Warmups:

Money Seats!

More of Warmups

Green welcomes Holtby to the NHL

Someone make the guy in the hat sit down.  I’ll update this thread during the game.  Engage CAPS LOCK.

UPDATE: ….And two periods later that’s still all we have received. Stevie K must have dropped his new Droid phone in those disgusting toilets or in the garlic sauce that came with his 12-dollar Papa Johns pizza. Or maybe Slapshot beaned him with a burrito and now he’s dead. It better be that last one, cause I’ll never forgive him otherwise.

ANOTHER UPDATE: K’s camera working again!! We have two new batches!

PERIOD: UNKNOWN

???????????

Laich sitting on the goal?

Another Picture of the guy in a Getzlaf jersey. K aim higher!

No idea.

Did someone score or is this the start of the third period?

UHHH ???

PHOTO NOT BY STEVIE K. CAN YOU TELL??

Well this ultimately ended in terrible failure. We apologize to the 3 of you who clicked every 5 minutes eagerly awaiting good photos. Until next time!