Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

I wrote on our mission statement that hockey should be as fun to read about as it is to watch. So what happens when hockey– Caps hockey at least– becomes a chore? Tuesday’s game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals was another messy loss, and gnome amount of puns will cheer us up right now.

The Leafs scored first, JVR seizing upon a communication breakdown between Neuvirth and Poti behind the Caps net. JVR struck again after Washington’s defense temporarily lost motor function. Marcus Johansson got his first of the year late in the first after Tomas Kundratek gave him a nice feed at the back door. Korbinan Holzer got his first NHL goal with a tricky long bomb. Mike Ribeiro executed a nice zone entry and passing sequence by sinking a powerplay goal, but the Leafs emerged victorious.

Leafs beat Caps 3-2.

• Of course Marcus Johansson scores 24 hours after we publish a treatise on how bad he’s been. Glad to see it Marcus get on the board… [evil mustache-twirl] …as it increases his trade value! Tomas Kundratek‘s pass to Mojo was a work of art as well, a well earned first NHL point for the young D-man.
• I’m ecstatic that Mojo scored, but he still has the worst underlying numbers on the team. He should be kept away from Alex Ovechkin at all costs, not paired with him to start the third period.
• Tom Poti had an eventful first period. First, he took a dangerous hit into the boards from Leo Komarov and stood up for himself. Ten he was the trailing D on a nice two-man rush with a decent chance at scoring, but later on that shift it all fell apart. Neuvirth retrieved the puck behind the net, flinched as if he was gonna clear, and then took his time returning the net. Poti seemed unsure if he was supposed to take the puck over, which gave Toronto’s JVR the opportunity to steal the puck and wrap it around.
• Korbinian Holzer is not a hockey player name. Korbinian Holzer is the name of a war criminal from Belarus. Korbinian Holzer is a minor character in a Vonnegut novel. Korbinian Holzer is the spice smuggler who sabotaged your primary buffer panel when you were trying to make the Kessell run in 11.8 parsecs.
• Did Joe B say that Beagle is a bloodhound along the boards? If so, niiiiiiice.
• Close calls: the more desperate your team is, the more they sting. When the Verizon Center spotlight comes on or Ovi puts his arms up in a “eff you I’m an anteater” pose it is even worse.
• Mike Ribeiro is the Caps best player right now, perhaps because he’s the least Capitals-y player (which is to say he’s new). That makes 3 goals for Ribs– all on the power play, and he leads the team in points. Ian says he deserves a 10-year, $200-million contract, and I think he’s exaggerating only a little.
• Agent Steckel: You are discovered. Your cover is blown. Get out now. p.s. thanks for blowing that empty-netter. <3 RMNB
• Michal Neuvirth, yikes. You’d think by now one of the Caps goalies would accidentally get a SV% above .900, right?
• Who is this JVR person?

Joe B suit of the night

Three years ago the Caps were the best team in the league. Right now they’re the worst. 30th out of 30 in points per game. Has any team fallen from grace this fast?

I worry something is being overlooked. A season like this is toxic to enthusiasm. That sucking sound you hear is what a contracting fan base sounds like. You as a fan deserve so much more than what you’re getting out of these Capitals right now.

I don’t have anything funny to say right now.

Caps at Pens on Thursday. That’ll be fun. Like going to a dinner party at your ex-girlfriend’s new mansion and her boyfriend is a state senator and you’re wearing zubaz and crocs.

Is Poti now! (Photo credit: Scott Audette)

Saturday was a bad night for the Washington Capitals. In their first game since May, the Caps got topped 6-3 by the Tampa Bay Lightning after a pitiful third period. One Cap, though, had to wait an even longer time between games. For the first time in over two years, Tom Poti stepped on the ice in an NHL game. After suffering a nagging groin injury and a busted pelvis (and before that almost losing an eye) it’s been a slog for Poti to make it back to the NHL. But just 8:25 into the game Poti got back into the action, assisting on Joel Ward’s game-tying tally. It was the 35-year-old defenseman’s first point since December 21, 2010 when he tallied an assist against New Jersey.

Coupled with a goal during his conditioning stint in Hershey (video) it appears Poti has come back as a scoring machine.

“It’s amazing,” Caps assistant goalie coach Olie Kolzig told Ian after Poti’s first game in Hershey. “He looks like he hasn’t missed a beat at all.”

Poti’s presence becomes even more important now that Jack Hillen has gone down with what looked like a shoulder injury, a point Kolzig echoed a week ago.

“Depth is going to be so important this year especially with 50 games in 100 nights,” he said. “You never know who’s going to go down with injury.”

Take a look at video of Poti’s slick, carefully planned helper:

Photo credit: Chris Gordon

Olie Kolzig is remembered as the greatest goalie in Capitals history. A staple in Washington’s net for over a decade, Kolzig led the team to their only Stanley Cup Finals appearance and became one of the franchise’s most beloved players. These days Kolzig has a different role. In his second year as associate goaltending coach, Kolzig spends his time mentoring the club’s young netminders in both minor leagues. The influence of a veteran has apparently rubbed off on the players– Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth recently added the German goalie’s likeness to his mask, a gesture Kolzig deeply appreciated.

On Sunday, I spoke on the phone with Olie The Goalie, who was in Hershey scouting the Bears game. As the NHL season approached, Kolzig gave me his thoughts on the Caps goalie duo, the distractions Braden Holtby faced last season, and what he sees next for Alex Ovechkin. He even told me what he thought of Tom Poti‘s return to hockey and what that could mean for the organization.

What are your thoughts on Philipp Grubauer’s first AHL win last Saturday?

He really played fantastic. He played the way he’s played the last two years. He looks like he’s been there, done that. He’s very calm in the net. He made three or four huge saves (Saturday), was great in the shootout, and after the game you couldn’t tell it was first AHL win. He’s only lost one game in regulation since the end of November. This guy knows how to win.

Sergey Kostenko was really impressive in development camp. What have you thought of him in Reading so far?

He’s probably the lowest guy on the depth chart. I think Brandon Anderson is ahead of him. Sergey just stepped back into game action a few weeks ago so he’s a little behind — his conditioning needs to improve a little bit — but based on development camp if he puts an attention to detail in his game, improves his work ethic, he would definitely pad the depth chart.

Do the Capitals almost have too many talented goaltenders in the system right now?

A couple years ago, yeah, we had too many guys in the net with Varlamov, but I think we’re staggered pretty nicely with Michal and Holtby up in Washington, Grubi has his first real chance to play at the American Hockey League level. You’ve got Kostenko and Anderson in their first year’s in the ECHL. We’re staggered nicely. In a couple years it could be different scenario, but it’s not a bad situation to have when you’re that deep at that position with injuries and trade value if that ever happens to be the case. It’s better to be rich than poor.

Obviously, I benefited from the years that we weren’t as deep in net, allowing me to play as many years as I did in Washington. Now that I’m on the coaching side, it’s definitely nice to have that depth.

Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth are two talented goaltenders that have proven worthy of being starters in the NHL. Do you think with the shortened and compressed season, it really gives the Capitals an advantage? Also, do you think they’ll mostly split games this year?

I don’t have any insight into that. I know that Adam has mentioned that Holtby would be the number-one guy going into the season. I’m a big Michal Neuvirth fan. I really think he’s a talented kid, and I think it’s fantastic that we have two guys with that ability especially in such a condensed season where there’s such a premium on winning every night. Not only is it physically draining, it’s mentally draining as well. You have two guys that can share the load — not only body but a fresh mind. I think we’re a lot further ahead than a lot of people believe.

How much has Braden Holtby grown since you started working with him? I talked to Mark French a few weeks ago and he said that this is the best he’s ever seen him play in his career. I’ve also talked to Holtby, and he’s said that the key for him is how calm he’s become in the net. What have you seen that’s helped him get to the next level?

I think it’s maturity. The beginning of last year he was dealing with a lot of issues that not a lot of people know about. That played a lot on his mind. When he was in net, maybe he wasn’t totally thinking about the game. Once all that got resolved, his game really started to become consistent. I think the stretch he had in the spring with the Caps obviously solidified his confidence in his ability to play in the NHL. And obviously the birth of his son. It matures you as a person real quickly. So I think a lot of things came together in his life in the spring. Now he’s really enjoying what he’s doing.

When the lockout happened, he could have come down here with a bad attitude — not a bad attitude — but an ‘I don’t care’ attitude, ‘I shouldn’t be down here,’ but he came down with a great attitude. He’s worked hard. He’s been one of the best goalies in the American League this year. He’s given them an opportunity to win every night. And that’s a great sign of maturity on Braden’s part.

Ovi seems to have a pep in his step at training camp. He’s the first guy over when Oates does instruction on the board. He looks like he’s flying out there. A few of the guys remarked about that in the locker room. I know you’re up in Hershey scouting, but what do you think Adam Oates is going to do for someone like Ovechkin?

I think first of all, Ovi and the skill guys are really going to thrive under Adam. Obviously, when you had the credentials that Adam has — he was such a great two-way player — he can really relate to the skill guys. He was recently inducted into the Hall of Fame. He has such a great attention to detail. You would be very stupid not to listen to what he has to say or not be very enthusiastic to play for him. He’s gonna get those offensive guys going so that they can show off their ability. He’ll demand responsibility in your own end as well. That’s what’s great about Adam: not only was he a great playmaker and skill guy in the offensive zone, the responsibility he has in his own end was second to none. Penalty-killing, he was one of the first guys called upon. The power play he was one of the first forwards called upon. I think guys like Ribeiro, Nicky Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Mike Green, I think all of those guys are going to benefit with Adam being coach.

Last year when Ovi played for Dale Hunter, the Capitals played a much different brand of hockey. They really played tight defensively. Do you think it benefited Ovechkin to see how important the other side of the game is and that you can win that way?

No question. When Dale came in, the team really struggled on both ends of the ice. They couldn’t keep the puck out of the net. They couldn’t score goals. Dale’s philosophy as coach was the only thing we can control is how we play in our own end, so we’re going to tighten things up and win games 1-0 and 2-1. That’s the philosophy that he went with. People could argue that it hurt us ultimately in the end, but I’m a big believer that if we wouldn’t have played that way we wouldn’t have made the playoffs. I think a guy like Ovi seeing the defensive side and being called upon to be responsible in how own end, I think it was a great lesson for him to build on. Now he’ll play under Adam, he’ll have that defensive responsibility, and then he’ll be allowed to show off his talent in the offensive zone. Ovi’s going to be a very happy hockey player.

Since you’re at the Hershey game, how is Tom Poti doing in his first game in two years?

He looks good. It’s amazing. He looks like he hasn’t missed a beat at all. He looks good out there. It’s actually pretty incredible. If he can somehow come back and play for Washington, that’s going to be such a huge bonus for us. It would give us so much depth.

Depth is going to be so important this year especially with 50 games in 100 nights.

For sure. You never know who’s going to go down with injury.

Do you have any advice for guys trying to prepare themselves for this lockout shortened-season? Is it a real grind?

In ’94-’95 I went through it and — you know what– everybody was just so excited to play again, it didn’t really bother anybody. We were just so happy to play hockey, it kind of outweighed the grind of the schedule. I think the guys are going to be excited to be playing in front of the fans. It’s going to be good to be playing again.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.

Photo credit: Tim Stough / Sweetest Hockey on Earth

A year ago Caps defenseman Tom Poti was considered washed up. After a pestering groin injury and a broken pelvis, which apparently is an actual thing that can happen to a person, his future as a pro hockey player was dubious at best. Fast-forward to January 2013. Tom Poti has recovered. He passed his physical in DC and got sent to Hershey on a conditioning stint. Poti proved himself capable on Sunday night, scoring a power play goal in 5-0 rout over the Whalers.

Kyle Mace at our sister site, Sweetest Hockey on Earth, has the full story on Poti’s big night in Pennsylvania. Read it and then tell me you’re not rooting for the guy to come back to the Caps and do great things.

If you took a break from hockey after May 4th, when the Tampa Bay Lightning swept the Washington Capitals out of the playoffs, we completely understand. It was rough. But the new season is here, along with reasons for renewed hope. So in case you’ve been avoiding hockey in general and this blog in particular, we’ve prepared a primer to catch you up.

Here is everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals but were afraid to ask (2011-2012 edition).

Who won the cup?

Boston Bruins. Tim Thomas was a monster. So was their bar tab.

Where’s Semyon Varlamov?

On July 30th, we thought that Varly was headed to the KHL. But the rumor was dubiously sourced, two teams (SKA and Lokomotiv Yaroslavl) disputed Varlamov’s negotiation rights, and the Caps weren’t talking. On July 1st, the first day of free agency, the Capitals dealt Varly to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for some very nice draft picks. As a condition of that deal, if the Avs don’t to make the playoffs those picks get even better.

Who else is gone?

Most of the team’s free agents:

• Matt Bradley was signed by the Florida Panthers.
• Boyd Gordon was signed by the Phoenix Coyotes.
• Jason Arnott is a member of the St. Louis Blues.
• Marco Sturm is in Vancouver on a gig for the Canucks.
• Scott Hannan will play for the Calgary Flames this year.
• And F16 Eric Fehr is a member of the brand-spanking new Winnipeg Jets. Yeah, more on that in a moment.

And Brooks Laich is back?

Is he ever! Brooks Laich signed a monster 6-year, $27M contract on June 28th. You’ll be getting lost in those eyes through 2018.

Who is this new goalie?

“New” is a relative term. Tomas Vokoun is a 35-year-old Czech goalie most recently out of Florida. Because he wants to play on a team with a chance at victory, Vokoun agreed to take a serious pay cut to play for the Caps. This is very good news, as Vokoun is an elite goaltender with a very real chance at the Vezina Trophy for best goalie this year. As sad as I’m sure you are about losing Semyon Varlamov, be heartened that the team has added someone this talented.

Who’s new on defense?

On July 1st George McPhee signed Roman Hamrlik, a grizzled vet who has spent the last four years with the Montreal Canadiens, to a 2-year, $7M contract. Hamrlik represents the added depth and experience that GMGM was looking for in the defensive zone. You can expect him to pair up with Dennis Wideman.

Who’s new up front?

That would be Joel Ward, who got a 4-year, $12M contract with the team on free agency day. Ward distinguished himself with a superb playoff performance with Nashville, scoring seven goals in 12 games, and he has a reputation as a defensively minded forward and hardy penalty killer. With the Caps’ apparent evaporation of secondary scoring, Ward will be expected to produce this year.

And don’t forget Troy Brouwer, who was picked up on draft day. Brouwer is what GMGM calls a “power forward”, a tough guy who will likely see time on the top two lines. McPhee thinks he might put up 20 goals this season.

And what’s this I hear about Olie Kolzig?

Vezina and King Clancy winner and the winning-est goalie in Capitals history, Olaf “Olie” Kolzig has rejoined the team as associate goaltending coach! Olie intends to be here for a while and has sold his insane mansion in the pacific northwest. If you’ll forgive a momentary brag, we talked to Kolzig back in February and told us then he was enthusiastic about future relations with his old team. Maybe we’ll see number 37 retired soon?

Any other new old faces? Maybe one that’ll actually play?

Hell yeah! Caps veteran Jeff Halpern is back with a one-year contract. Halpy was a Cap from 1999 until 2004 and says he “jumped at the opportunity to come back” to the team that launched his NHL career. Between this and the return of Olie, you can expect to see noticeably more blue/black/bronze jerseys around Chinatown this year.

How about those injuries last year?

Dennis Wideman missed the playoffs after a nasty hit to the leg from Carolina’s Tuomo Ruutu (checked: still not a Star Wars character) at the end of the regular season. We heard it was “just a bruise”, but it turned out to be something gross called “compartment syndrome.” Wideman is looking good in the preseason and should be playing on opening night.

Tom Poti missed most of last year with a nagging groin injury. We usually make jokes about groin injuries here, but Poti’s ailment is seriously endangering his hockey career. Tom failed his physical and will likely be on injured reserve status this year.

Any cool drama I need to know about?

Alright, get this: Matt Bradley gives an interview to a Florida radio station and says that Alex Semin doesn’t care. Then David Steckel kinda-sorta says the same thing. And then everyone else jumps to Semin’s defense. And then the dude himself gives two English-language video interviews, which kinda makes you think someone in the organization was really worried about this meme. Speaking of memes, we made some bar graphs about the whole kerfuffle.

In other news, Alex Ovechkin slouched in an interview with Mike Vogel, leading everyone to think he got fat. A subsequent onslaught of notables (including Ted Leonsis himself) defended Alex’s fitness. This in no way justified and perpetuated a ludicrous story that should have been ignored by all sensible people except us and Dan Steinberg.

Just recently the Caps tried out white netting instead of black netting behind the ice, creating a kind of snowblindness for fans who sit at funny angles. People complained, and the white netting lasted exactly one game. Don’t laugh; we actually have to read and write about this stuff.

And any blatant gimmickry I should be aware of?

For 16 road games this year, the Caps will be wearing their third jersey, which is basically the Winter Classic uni. Most of those games will be in February and March, when the Caps will be on the road a lot.

What utterly trivial things did RMNB write about this year?

Nothing except the earthshaking drama of Alex Ovechkin playing soccer, Alex Ovechkin dressing like a wookiee, Alex Ovechkin wearing sweatpants over his jeans, and Alex Ovechkin being on a candy bar.

Hook me up with some #fancystats.

My favorite piece by Neil this summer was The Sasha Index, which tracks how Alex Semin’s janusian nature affects the team’s performance by inventing a brand new statistical metric. You might also be interested in Jeff Halpern’s projected output, the lofty expectations placed on Alex Ovechkin, and who Nick Backstrom should play with.

What’s up with the Caps on the radio?

Longtime Caps play-by-play man Steve Kolbe did not have his contract with the team renewed over the summer. In his place, John Walton, former PR boss and play-by-play guy for the Hershey Bears, will be doing radio and other stuff. Scott Stuccio takes over for the Bears.

How was your summer, Russian Machine Never Breaks?

Oh not bad; thanks for asking. Neil has been contributing to ESPN Insider in addition to WaPo’s Capitals Insider. Ian has two ferrets. I’ve got a new bulldog named Georgia who sits on my coffee table when I’m not home. Chris got his pubes. Fedor and Igor are still Russian, and Rachel is working on her artist chops.

We’ve got bigger news, but let’s save that for later in the week.

What’s going on in the rest of the NHL?

The Atlanta Thrashers are history. The franchise has become the Winnipeg Jets, restoring the team that left for Phoenix in ’96. Manitoba native and newly minted Jet Eric Fehr is particularly happy about this news. The sucky part is that the ‘Peg is still technically in the NHL’s Southeast division, so there’s gonna be a lot of travelling for SE teams this year. The NHL will realign next season.

Sidney Crosby is still recovering from the concussion he suffered at the beginning of 2011. There is no timetable for his return.

Perhaps Washington’s most reviled ex-player, Jaromir Jagr, has returned to the NHL. He will play for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Speaking of Philly, the Winter Classic of 2012 will pit them against the Rangers.

Sean Avery is still a douchebag, but now with a heart of gold. Matt Cooke is still a thug, but wants to reform. The Sedins are still creepy, and that’ll never change. Martin St. Louis is still lilliputian, and he probably wears lifts in his shoes.

What are the expectations for the Caps this year?

Oh man. Well they struggled a bit in the preseason, but let’s pretend that doesn’t matter.

As of right now, The gambling site Bodog has the Caps tied with the Canucks to win the cup at 7:1. Puck Daddy’s profile on the team predicts they’ll advance to the conference finals at least. As long as no one paints any oil paintings, this thing should be a lock.

Crash the net.

Illustrations and layout by Ian Oland; Capitals photos by Chris Gordon.

“Matt Bradley said what?!” (Photo credit: Chris Gordon)

136 Days after the Capitals got swept out of the playoffs, the players were back on the ice on Saturday, ready for a new season.

Bruce Boudreau instituted a Redskins-esque fitness test, though unfortunately for the media no one pulled an Albert Haynesworth and failed it. (What the heck is RMNB writing about then, you must be thinking.)

Everybody asked about the test — how difficult it was, what it says about the team’s mentality this season, and so on. And then they asked about it some more. And then they asked about it again. Turns out Mike Knuble took note.

“We should get some of the bloggers out there, see how they do,” the veteran winger quipped.

On a less lighthearted note, Caps General Manager George McPhee told reporters defenseman Tom Poti failed his physical on Friday and has been placed on long-term injured reserve with a groin problem that has bothered the 34-year-old since early last season.

“I’m right where I was last year,” McPhee said. “Unfortunately he’s no further along.”

But let’s end it on a fun note: Alex Ovechkin got pie’d, Marcus Johansson’s new best friend is a local policeman, and Alex Semin cared.

Below, check out the pictures.

So, Ovi, how’s the new equipment working?

I made this one a caption contest on Twitter. Shockingly, not all of the responses were Five Dollar Footlong related.

Not exactly sure what’s happening here.

Neuvy needs just a touch more red in gear, no?

This is hard.

Dean Evason. Whistle. You know the drill.

Jeff Halpern… is back.

Mike Green… has ridiculous hair.

Your daily artistic shot of Dennis Wideman.

Halpern’s happy to be back.

Roman Hamrlik: thrilled.

This is Tomas Vokoun.

This is Dave Prior coaching Tomas Vokoun.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland.

Photo credit: Richard Wolowicz

After absorbing an eight-game losing streak in December and seeing their offense repeatedly not click, Bruce Boudreau and George McPhee decided that the time had finally come to change the team’s run ‘n’ gun style to a more defense-first system. During the year, the Capitals traded top six forward Tomas Fleischmann to Colorado for veteran Scott Hannan and also picked up Dennis Wideman at the trade deadline. The results were stunning.

After finishing 16th in the league in 2009-10 with a goals allowed per game of 2.67, the Capitals finished in the top five in 2010-11, with 2.33. Washington also had the third best penalty kill in the league last year, improving almost six percent from the year before. However, the Caps still flamed out early on in the playoffs, being swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

“I felt we needed to add a defenseman last year in the summer and we didn’t do it,” McPhee said Friday. “We made the trade the during the year, but it’s a hard process to go through.”

So in response, McPhee signed 37-year old defenseman Roman Hamrlik, who played the last four seasons in Montreal, to a two year, seven million dollar deal.

“It’s an honor to play for the Washington Capitals,” Hamrlik told reporters Saturday. “I think I can bring some experience and I can still move the puck, and I can play probably play around 20, 22 good, quality minutes I can bring to the team, for sure.”

Hamrlik, a veteran of 19 NHL seasons, may be paired with star defenseman Mike Green and possibly fill the role as mentor to the 25 year-old, who he referred to as “one of the best defenseman in the league.”

“When we played against you guys, he’s got lots of speed, great hands, he can shoot the puck,” Hamrlik said. “Hopefully he can learn something from me. For me playing with those young guys, superstars like that, it’s something I can learn from them too.”

And while the Caps have added a seasoned D-man in Hamrlik, the signing likely spells the end of another in Hannan, who’s terms were probably too high for Washington in the salary cap world. It also probably means the Capitals believe Tom Poti will not be able to come back from the chronic groin injury that has derailed his career.

But for Hamrlik, signing with Washington is one last chance to win the ultimate prize.

“That’s my goal. I think I’m getting to that age when I’m 37 and I was choosing Capitals for hopefully go deep in the playoffs and win the Cup one day and you know, I’ve been in the league for a long time and I have experience and I think I can still play,” he said. “It’s been a great run. I think age doesn’t really matter if you can keep fighting with the young guys.”

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.

Photo credit: Rob Carr

Not all goals are created equal. A team scoring first has almost twice the win percentage of a team that trails first, while scoring an empty net goal almost always means the game was out of reach. But what about all the goals scored in between? Of all those goals that a player scores, how many contribute to victories and how vitally do they contribute?

There is a direct relationship between how many goals a club scores and allows to its won-lost record, often called the Pythagorean expectation. The formula is pretty simple: win% = GF^2/GF^2+GA^2 where GF = goals for, GA = goals against, and ^ means “raised to the power of”, in this case, 2.

For example, last year Washington scored 318 goals and allowed 233, for a Pythagorean win expectation of 318^2/(318^2+233^2) = .651 or 53 games out of 82. They won 54 games last year.

Using this we can weight the value of each goal scored this year to how much it increased the Capitals chance of winning. A goal scored in a 0-0 game has more of an impact on the outcome than the fifth goal in a 7-0 blowout. Scoring in one-goal games will always be at a premium. Washington has already matched their total of 1-goal games (41) from last year, making those goals even more meaningful. I will say there are obvious limitations, such as ignoring assists to give a better picture of who is contributing overall to wins and I am looking into adding this metric — as well as other improvements — to future iterations.

In the table below, goals are the skater’s current goal total this season through game 75. Total Win% Added is the cumulative sum of how much all his goals increased the teams chances of winning and W% added per goal is the average increase that player’s goal contributes to the team’s chances of winning.

Let’s start with the three skaters who have eight goals so far on the season: Jason Chimera, Matt Hendricks and Mike Green. On average, a goal scored by Chimera adds a 15.1% chance at a win, while Hendricks’ tallies add 16.6%. Then there’s Mike Green, who’s robust 19.5% shows us why his nickname is “Game Over.”

When Alex Semin scores a goal the Caps are 23-0, but a look at the table shows that he increases the chances of a Caps’ win by about 10% with each one — far less than some of the others atop the leaderboard. Here’s why: almost half his goals have no significant impact on winning. Ten have come when the Caps already have the lead, six when the score is tied and the rest when the Caps trail.

The most intriguing values, at least to me, are those of the centers. Across the board they seem to be higher than the other skaters prompting me to take a look at last year’s values as well. Backstrom’s average contribution is significantly higher this year (24.2%) than last year (14.9%) despite having almost twice as many goals, while Boyd Gordon is relatively even, seeing 26% this year vs. last year’s 30% average contribution. Which brings us to the rookies, Mathieu Perreault and Marcus Johansson, both of whom seem to score goals when it counts.

So what does this all mean? Perhaps this is a different way of looking at who has been “most valuable.” Perhaps Semin’s goals are just windrow dressing and have less impact on the game than we think. Perhaps we are one step closer to defining what “clutch” play truly is — or if it even exists.

Perhaps I just have too much time on my hands.

Just lie down, Schultzy. It’ll all be over soon. (Photo credit: Scott Audette)

In Paddy Chayesfsky’s Network, seasoned newsman Howard Beale has a nervous breakdown on live television. At the height of frustration, he compels his viewers to open up their windows and shout, “I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!”

Don’t know why that popped into my head just now.

The Washington Capitals’ appointment with the Tampa Bay Lightning was supposed to be an impassioned affair: two tied Southeast teams battling for the division lead. That did not happen. The Caps, perhaps reeling from last night’s overtime loss to the Panthers, never really suited up. The ever-improving Lightning took control of the game and never relented.

Dominic Moore waited for the power play to end before scoring, exploiting some lazy defensive work by Washington. Sean Bergenheim followed up with a home-run swing at one of Semyon Varlamov’s flying rebounds. And then Simon Gagne grabbed a loose puck and beat the overwhelmed Varly on the breakaway. The Caps didn’t even try. Bolts beat Caps 3-0.

• Welcome back to active duty, Boyd Gordon. How’s your nasty foot thing? Great. So you were minus-1 with two giveaways and two shorthanded chances against. Let’s just call that “spooling up for Vancouver”.
• Recently injured Tom Poti was on ice for four Bolts chances and two Bolts goals in the first period. He played one shift in the second period before retreating. Tom is clearly not 100% yet, and including him in the lineup at the expense of ol’ reliable John Erskine was a tactical error by Caps management.
• Jeff Schultz was a lucky guy tonight. He had great, close-up views of every single Lightning goal. Last season’s plus-minus leader was minus-3 for the evening.
• The Russian Machine broke five hockey sticks. Alex Ovechkin had some bad bounces on Tampa Bay’s ice, yeah, but this was still another stinker from the team’s supposed star. Two shots on goal, five blocked, 5 sticks in shards, 0 results. When will the Great 8 come back?
• Steve Downie is a bag. I know this, you know this, the refs know this. So in that scrum with Scott Hannan, how did he manage to get a single minor penalty while Scott got a double? His peerless bag acumen. Downie studied under a grand master of baggery in Mongolia for five years. He commands a preternatural levels of bag qi.
• Two shutouts in a row from Dwayne Roloson. Six shutouts on the season for the “offensive juggernaut” Capitals. Yeah, reality has intruded on that delusion finally.
• Let’s play “Who’s a liability?”, 5v5 scoring chances edition! Jason Chimera: 0 for, 3 against. Eric Fehr: 0 for, 3 against. But your winner is the scrappy, lovable Mathieu Perreault with 0 scoring chances for and 4 against. Congrats, Perry. Your prize is waiting for you in Hershey.
• Retooled PP, eh? Fehr and Chimera got a minute, Laich got 90 seconds. Not the switch-up Bruce Boudreau hinted at in last night’s post-game interview.

• Boudreau’s judgement is now suspect in this fan’s opinion. His post-game interview attributed the loss to bad bounces and unlucky breaks. Hopefully that was his way of spinning the beat and not a sign gross incompetence.
• Your TOI leader was John Carlson (24:27), a precious bright spot in this endless inky vacuum simply because he never surrendered.

Adios, division lead. The Capitals just didn’t want it. The Lightning outchanced them 17 to 9, the worst differential all season (-10 vs. Buffalo on Nov 13). The Caps consistently coughed up pucks on their own blue line, had no solvent for Tampa’s trap, and looked grumpy on the ice for the entire hour.

I don’t get it. They’re playing professional hockey. If you were playing professional hockey, you’d jump out of bed every morning, clap your hands, and count the precious seconds until puck drop. If you were facing your division rival in a high-stakes match for first place, you’d be an unstoppable whirlwind of high fives and ninja kicks. The Caps should have played you instead of the Eeyores they had filling out the roster.

The boys fly home tonight and will take a day to prepare for the best of the west, the Vancouver Canucks, with their Sedins and their Luongo and a whole bunch of other guys we usually ignore until May. So let’s hope the boys rediscover the passion in the next 40 hours. Because I’m not saying we’re Howard Beale right now, but we’re not that far off either.

Additional pessimism by Neil Greenberg.

Editor’s note: One year ago, Emily Karol gave a newborn RMNB a kick in the pants with her report on the first Casino Night. This year she does the same with the added bonus of Chris Gordon’s photos.

By the way, Emily is looking for a roommate. Available February 1st, she’s got a single bedroom with a private bathroom and a walk-in closet located just 3 miles from Kettler Capitals Iceplex. Email her if you’re interested. Awesome people only, please. Take it away, Emily.

When I learned that the 2nd annual CapsCare Casino Night and Auction would take place on January 9th, I couldn’t be more excited. I attended the first Casino Night and had a blast, but this year’s festivities hit on the birthdays of both Bruce Boudreau and me. Who could pass up the chance to wear a pretty dress, drink some cocktails, and schmooze with fabulous people on your birthday? Not me.

But this evening was very different from the first. I was a year older ,and even though I still attended alone there were many more people I knew and wanted to visit this time around. I purchased the VIP ticket again (hey, it’s for charity!) and was granted access to the coaches and players for a hour before the event really kicked off. I’m guessing the VIP room had fewer people this year; it seemed more casual and the players definitely mingled a lot more. All the guys I met were very sweet. I was surprised at how many of them didn’t know about the blog, Russian Machine Never Breaks. Regardless, they obliged to pose with friendly smiles when I asked, and a few even said they would look up the blog. Ian, Peter, and Neil: I will take my payment in cash or credit.

I made a point in the VIP room to wish Bruce Boudreau a happy birthday and apologize for the dirty looks. That comment provoked a double take from Bruce. I chuckled and said I was the girl in the Mercedes Benz commercials that glared at him during his bird calls and track suit dance. Bruce gave a big smile and said no worries and wished me a happy birthday right back.

The hour flew by quickly, and it was time to venture out into the the main ballroom for food, music, mingling, and gambling. The ballroom was set up completely different from last year, with the food all in the middle by the dance floor. The number of gambling tables doubled. After a quick introduction of the team to the crowd, the party really started. Fans and players scattered throughout the main ballroom and the lobby, which hosted Wii bowling, Rock Band, and the silent auction. I should note that Semyon Varlamov is a sweetheart, staying out in the lobby to sign autographs and take photos with fans for most of the event. Fans were not allowed to take posed photos or ask for autographs in the ballroom, so the fact that Varly stayed in the lobby for most of the time meant a lot to this fan.

I didn’t really partake in any events during the evening. I just wandered around and watched fans interact with their idols. I did see Schultz and Neuvy play on Wii Rock Band, and a year later Mr. Nasty is still intense about that game. Semin and Ovi seemed inseparable, and I loved the wives all hanging out at a poker table together trying to win some chips. The place was really hopping this year.

I’m eager to see what next year’s Casino Night will bring. Two years, two completely different experiences, both enjoyable in their own right. Thanks for reading!

Photos (Click to enlarge)

Nicky Backstrom can manage only a crooked smile after 16 games without a goal.

During a hand of NLHE, Alex Semin checks his wristwatch. It is apparently zebra o’clock.

BBBBBB (Bench boss birthday boy Bruce Boudreau) tells the Slap Shot story for the billionth time.

Karl Alzner: happy and wholesome. Tom Poti: sinisterly counting Karl Alzner’s stack.

Jason Chimera then unhinged his jaw and swallowed this partygoer whole to a smattering of applause.

George McPhee, on the button, raises pot value and then throws in D.J. King’s contract.

Marcus and Nicky pore over an Ikea catalog (out of frame). Billy the Bookshelf FTW.

Tyler Sloan and Jeff Schultz are either throwing dice or watching MoJo and Backy playing Twister.

Okay, Alex Ovechkin’s suit is sharp. No jokes. I need that thing. Fashion bugs: where can I get it?

Ovi’s ongoing Wii Bowling slump has him almost 20 strikes off his 2009-2010 pace.

John Carlson (not yet 21 here ) and Jay Beagle applaud for BBBBBB’s kegstand (not pictured).

The guy from the gaming commission had a stroke when he saw this picture.

Mathieu Perreault sits at the kids table. In the background, Ovi is clearly peeking at someone’s cards.

Alex Ovechkin shuffles his chips. The dealers haaaaaate when you do that, but c’mon: it’s Ovi!

Semyon Varlamov and Alex Semin recite a Plath poem from memory. JK, it was Russian.

Mr. Nasty and Mikey Neuvirth ditch the party for a Rock Band sesh. Band name: Puzzle Crotch.

“So Hendy was like, ‘if you blindside Crosby in the head, I’ll buy you a beer’, and now here we are.”

Beags and Carlson’s persistently cold rolls wiped out the entire table table in two orbits.

DJ Brett Leonhardt simultaneously checks Facebook and updates his iTunes playlist.

BBBBBB’s birthday wish was that this cake was made out of cheeseburgers.

Semyon Varlamov is unamused by BBBBBB’s “I’m not touching you! I’m not touching you!” taunt.

Capitals players and staff with a rousing rendition of Backstreet Boys’ “I Want It That Way.”

It looked like an ordinary birthday high-five until Bruce went for the Top Gun follow-through.

Jason Chimera and Alex Ovechkin laugh at you. Damn, that suit is cool.