Here’s Doug Johnson of the PuckBuddys with your penultimate pregamer. Follow @PuckBuddys.

Early Morning Skate: Our doctor advises those of you with heart issues, temper problems, or who are prone to premature catastrophization to avoid watching the Capitals Thursday night. In fact, why not just turn the TV and iPad off and curl up into a little whimpering ball right now.

The rest of us? We few… we lucky few… are ready for, and this is no hyperbole, the single most cosmically important game for any team since the beginning of time. That said, will the Capitals be ready as well?

Alex Semin

The most cogent analysis we’ve cooked up: heart. Those bad games, they wear on their faces.  When we look at the bench during those bad night, we can see that they just don’t believe in themselves and have already given up.

We’re not giving up, Brave Men in Red, and we believe you haven’t, either. That’s why you must defeat Florida. There are so many permutations of possible outcomes between now and Saturday night, that it makes our hair hurt (or what’s left of it), just trying to comprehend. But for the Caps, as Tim Russert said, it all comes down to, “Florida, Florida, Florida.”  But luckily for us, we don’t have a Supreme Court interfering and screwing things up – this one is on us, all us. No dangling chads this time, just dangles. Dangles, dekes, curls, drags, SHOTS, SHOTS, SHOTS, CRASHING and SCOARING!

The Non-Stat-Tastic Taunting Pregame

People – annoying people, mostly – say that “Washington was built on a swamp.” Haha, but it wasn’t and they’re ass-butts. What is true is that Florida was a swamp, and now has been converted into America’s Garbage Pile of stuff the rest of us don’t want anymore. Think about it: Backstreet Boys. Katherine Harris. Paula Hawkins. Dave Barry. Charlie Crist. All that refuse that sensible types toss away, wanting to forget their mistakes? It just sorta tumbles down the continent and collects in our national sewer. You think we’re kidding about this garbage stuff? The highest elevation in Florida is a measly 345 feet above sea level – that is if you don’t include the state’s approximately 100 landfills. That’s the real FLorida topography.

So just imagine the sort of  goblins that inhabit Sunrise, Florida – the non-ironically-yet-oh-so-tragically-named home of the Panthers. Tod Browning’s Freaks had nothing on this place. Gooble-gobble, they’re awful. And they’re also kinda the recycling heap of the Washington Capitals (which we think unfairly taints the noble cause of recycling.)  “Flash” Fleischmann. “Brads” Bradley. “Blitzkreig” Sturm. And José ”Still So Hot” Theodore. You could be forgiven for thinking this team is just a collection of old rubber bands and dirty doggie-bags…except. Except for the fact that we’ve pretty much been looking up their skirt all season.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t have their number on speed-kill-dial.

The Throw Down in China Town

• Home and Away. Four times we’ve met this year. Twice here, twice down in the urinal / litterbox. At home, we win. Down there, we’re in the toilet. I don’t need to tell you that the Caps still are among the best at-home teams in the League. Or that we play the stink-cats at the Phone Booth.
• Shut Yo’ Mouth. Not only have we won at home, but we’ve shut the kittehs out both times, the Panthers’ longest series of shut-outs yet. We have our Top Cat between the pipes on Thursday, but Jose Pussycat hasn’t logged a win since mid-March, leaving the heavy lifting to Scott Clemenceau or some other surrender monkey.
• Stay Filthy. We’ve noted Ovi’s rouse from Wintertime slumber to Springtime colossus. We’ve seen Nicky take back the dot (or BE the dot) and, hopefully soon, awaken our hibernating power play. We’ve seen Beags start pawing hard at the net while Old Man Kanoooobs never stopped. And, H8ers (or Twenty-H8ers)  I’m talking to you, Alexander Semin has game in/game out continued to show his quality. There is nobody in teh NHL who can snipe like Sasha. That 14 minutes of TOI from the Bolts game was an abomination, and we’re still shaking our heads.  Coach, keep him on the ice, and Sasha, keep it up, Russian Huggy-Bear.
• Any Time Over Time. Yeesh. I’m still in the books as hating overtime, and really hating shoot outs. Yet the Caps have twice in just two weeks shown what a shoot out should look like. Hendy? We’re looking in your direction! Overall, we’ve got the mojo over the Panthers in this category…should it come to it. But it better not. Win in regulation. Close the deal in 60.
• Hollywood Ending. “Forget it, Jose. It’s Chinatown.”

The Throwback Jersey

Look, this has been a heck of a season. And by heck we mean other words our RMNB overlords don’t like us using, even though we’re all grown-ups and know what we’re talking about but have to maintain the façade of politesse because, whatever. We’ve hooted and hollered and fist-bumped and taken too many rides-of-shame home on the Metro. It’s still too early for look backs because we’re still looking forward to playoffs. But at the second to last regular season go-around, we can’t wait for Thursday evening. (And our throw-back jerseys are bad luck to boot.)

7pm on the teevees. Unlike Saturday’s season finale against the Rags, the Thursday game is on CSN. Thank God we won’t have to suffer through the lunatic, hate-filled ranting and raving of the NBC (Nattering Braying Carping) announce team.  And we’ll see you on the Twitters – use the special hashtag: #RussianMachineBreaksYou

Once more into the breach, my friends. CRASH THE NET!

Doug Johnson, Puck Buddy. Twitter. Didja read their latest thing? It was terrific.

The Pregame: “Oh dear.”  Oh, d-d-dearie dear me. Gosh and darn it all.

Remember that funny little wiggly piglet from your childhood stories named…um, Piglet? The one who worried about everything x 2? Oh, the one who was really needy?  We do. Specifically, we remember that Piglet, for all his kindness, was prone to needless worry.

“SEO!” yell our overlords at RMNB (not really.) (Kinda.) “Optimize key items! Fast and tight! Key words! Search items for hits!”

“Caps Fail!” screech the bloglines. “Disaster!” “Pull The Plug”*

We’re ignoring both.

So, were we worrywarts or obedient pigs, we would start off this preview with something like “Caps Slide Southeast Conference Turmoil Panic Bench Hunter.” hahahaha. Which is sort of a funny headline, but just nothing we ever, ever, will write.

We prefer Piglet’s “You can’t stay in your corner of the forest, waiting for others to come to you; you have to go to them sometimes.”

That, my hockey friends, from a striped pocket pig is exactly the best advice anyone can raise about the Caps.

The Puck Drop

“You have to go to them sometimes.” Such a brave pig.

Stephen Weiss

Oh sure, we saw the last game (grch) and read Peter’s group dissection of what went wrong, which was brilliant. And more specifically, what it may presage (as in: glup slup Titanic HELP burgle snurf.) And yet, here is where we diverge.

OK. Everyone listen up. Tuesday’s game is serious. No more funz and gamez. We’re needing points, we’re far too loose of late, and we canNOT give up a point to the Panthers.  Meaning, they are our gatekeepers. We’re in the f&^kall position of chasing them, so not only do we need wins, we need them to lose.

How we do it is for the men on the ice Tuesday. We have a few ideas; all of them from coach Piglet.

Why They’re Hot

Tommy Flash

1: Playas Play: So ugh, of course there are those few/several/multiple Cats players who figure. Who always get a paw in the freakin’ bowl. Kris Versteeg (20G/25A, plus-7) is just about at the top of anyone’s list. A G against Winnipeg and an A against the Bolts (in that ugly vivisection) makes Steegs a pair of mitts to watch for. Trailing on his ice is shortie (6’1″) and former Cap Tomas Fleischmann (17G/21A, minus-2 but who cares) and Asst. Capt. Stephen Weiss (13G/25A, plus-8) who just registers a ‘wow’ on any meter.

2: Numbers Lie: So we’re five of the last ten with these gutter-felines. The last time we met the Cats we looked like we were asleep. Fine. The Panthers looked worse on Saturday. What is the verb to describe their laying down? Consult your sports dictionary.

What Makes Us Hot

1: Company = Distance. Ugh. We’re tied with the Panthers on key items: completely equal at the PK, although they lead at the PP.  We outshoot them this season, but not by much. Piglet’s sense is that the Caps have more flash in their firearms, but the Cats let loose what little they have.

2: Little Vs. Lottle.  Nicky. Greenie. Poti (we so wish you well.) And now Brooksie, and…we imagine before publishing…Dima. Meaning everyone needs to step double-time up to the line and do more than they were asked to do. We believe they will.

We believe this ship is not sinking. Pay no attention to the water at your ankles. Really, this ship cannot sink. And we will prove that.

PostGame Un-Called-For Umping

Piglet sidled up to Pooh from behind. “Pooh?” he whispered.
“Yes, Piglet?”
“Nothing,” said Piglet, taking Pooh’s hand. “I just wanted to be sure of you.”

Caps. We just want to be sure of you.

Prediction

Comcast Sports 7pm: Joe B will be downer, Locker will be helpful. Caps 3, Florida 1. There, I said it.

Piglet: “You are braver than you believe, stronger than you seem, and smarter than you think.”

Meme Of The Night

Photo credit: Alan Diaz

The Washington Capitals have three dates with the Florida Panthers in February, and these games will determine their chances for a postseason. This one was a so-called “four-point game”, and the Capitals came up tragically short.

After a scoreless first period, Mikael Samuelsson faked a hardaround and then fired a shot to Neuvirth’s far side– hitting the post then net. It was a fluke-y, no-look shot from almost 90 feet out, but it caught Neuvirth being lazy, and that’s what matters. Brooks Laich tied it up with a feisty top-shelfer from the crease during 4-on-4 play. Samuelsson got his second of the night with the go-ahead goal on a third period power play. After a long adjudication, Stephen Weiss was awarded a goal that had been washed out at first.

John Carlson made it a one-goal game with a leisurely slapper from the high slot, but Shawn Matthias grabbed an empty netter a few moments later. Panthers beat Caps 4-2.

• Mikael Samuelsson‘s 88-foot trick shot was stifling. Neuvirth blatantly misplayed it, and the Caps’ offense sort of retreated afterwards. After firing a respectable 11 count on net in the first period, they had only 7 in the second period. If you’re looking for continuity in the Capitals’ narrative arc, it’s that their offense meh-ness is still happening.
• Brooks Laich earned his goal by beating Samuelsson’s stick check.
• Then Samuelsson earned his second goal by beating Brooks’ block.
• Jeff Schultz returned to active play for the first time since December 31st, but played a quiet game. No shots, no goals against, 9:48 TOI, and stout defense throughout. It seems there were no nibbles on the line when McPhee went fishing, so is Schultzy here to stay? It’s not like any other defenders are doing superbly under the new system…
• No one will dance with Joel Rechlicz. He earned a lot of money for less than 3 minutes of play. Quick: what are some better ways to spend half a million dollars?
• A for effort: Troy Brouwer (5 shots) and Brooks Laich (4 shots, 1 goal). And somewhere in the tri-state area, there’s a goat dreading the return flight of Mike Knuble (3 shots).
• If you’re scouting against the Capitals these days, you’re probably saying stuff like “Stay mobile and quick in their zone. If you keep moving, they will lose you.” That’s the way it goes lately, the reason why our goalies have to perform superhuman feats to keep these games competitive. And that’s why we have close games despite the Capitals getting outshot by miles (70 attempts to 51).
• Tomas Fleischmann has had a tough go of it lately, but he was dominating on-ice tonight. One assist, plus-14 Corsi, one crucial breakaway.
• The Capitals’ road power play is 4th worst in the NHL, and they proved it tonight. John Carlson spoiled their first opportunity with a bad penalty after just 10 seconds. Poor puck control made the second one seem more like a Panther’s PP.
• Carlson redeemed himself with some late-game heroics, but he choked just a minute later when he set up Matthias for the empty netter. The kid is in trouble, and there isn’t a light at the end of the tunnel just yet.

Joe B suit of the night

The Capitals are no longer in the conference’s top 8; they have dropped from 3rd to 9th. If they don’t change– significantly and soon– they will not regain that spot.

But here comes Ovi, who just served the third of his three-game suspension. And each new morning brings us a little closer to the Comebackstrom and what will be Mike Green’s Third Comeback of the season.

We’re not cynical, but we’re not quixotic. We want more from our team and their coach and their management. Every player on the roster has been a disappointment at some point, but there are 32 more opportunities for redemption.

Montreal on Saturday. It’s Hockey Early Afternoon in Canada and Ovechkin’s comeback, so, ya know. Prepare.

Crash the net.

Kris Versteeg wipes out. (Photo credit: Thearon W. Henderson)

How was your weekend? The Caps won. That was cool. I bet Coach Hunter is psyched. I lost my cell phone. That sucked.

On Monday night, the Capitals hit the road again, leaving a tumultuous three-game home stand behind them. They’ll be suiting up in Sunrise, Florida, which is a ludicrous name for a city. The hosting team? The Florida Capitals.

Marjory the Trash Heap was also assembled from other people's refuse.

Ahh, shoot! Florida Panthers. Sorry. But the Florida roster does sport four ex-Caps: Tomas Fleischmann, Matt Bradley, Jose Theodore, and Marco Sturm (who shouldn’t really count). How did so many Caps players end up in Florida? Over the summer, Panthers GM Dale Tallon got his checkbook out and started signing free agents all willy nilly just to reach the salary floor.

And now– somehow– the Panthers are at the top of the Southeast Division. No one saw that coming. This team was assembled from spare parts. We had joked that it was a retirement home. These guys shouldn’t have a cohesive personality, let alone a winning record. Instead, they’re 14-8-4 and they’ve commited the fewest minor penalties in the league. It’s disciplined and effective hockey they’re playing in Sunrise, which is still is a stupid name for a city.

The Capitals are in the awkward position of looking up in the standings to see another Southeast team. Florida is five points ahead of Washington, even if Washington has played one fewer game. So yeah, this one matters.

The Panthers are making a big deal out of the game. It’s Tomas Vokoun’s homecoming. Vokes played four seasons for Florida before leaving as a free agent last year. Even though the team has changed drastically, his return is a marketing ploy. This is from their site:

Let’s take a look at some Panthers players.

Tomas Fleischmann (12G, 15A, plus-14 ). Flash’s blood clot thing is ancient history. If he were still playing on the Caps, he’d be their best player. Remember who GM got in exchange for him? Scott Hannon, whom the team didn’t re-sign over the summer.

Matt Bradley (1G, 1A, even). Nothing to say here. I included him out of nostalgia. If he fights Matt Hendricks, there will be tears.

Kris Versteeg (12G, 12A, plus-13). The right winger is playing great hockey in what should become his career year.

Jose Theodore (2.28 GAA, .924 Sv%) is Florida’s number-one goalie. If the hockey gods are good, we’ll see Theo between the pipes.

On the Caps side, Mike Green is still out with a shattered babymaker. Jay Beagle is still doing the concussion thing, but he’s improving. Alex Semin is traveling with the team, but the shoulder injury he suffered after Jordan Staal’s charge may keep him out. We’ll know after the morning skate.

Can Coach Hunter string two wins together? Will the Caps’ offense come back to life? Will RMNB make a crack about Jose Theodore’s hair? Only one of these things is certain.

Puck drops at 7:30 PM on CSN. See you there.

Photo credit: Scott Audette

The Florida Panthers spent their Monday night trouncing the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4. The Cats used five powerplay goals to fend off a third period rally from their rivals in America’s groin. By now the Panthers are probably already on their way up to Washington.

Here we go. This is the game you’ve been looking forward to. Not the rematch with Tampa, the date with Pittsburgh, or Thursday’s face-off with Jagr. You have been amped for this game: Matt Bradley, Jose Theodore, Tomas Fleischmann– all your exes are coming over for a dinner party and it’s going to be AWKWARD.

Sean Bergenheim

Before we do some creepy Facebook stalking on our former lovers, let’s size up the rest of Florida. Most of these guys you’ll remember from other teams because Florida is the Frankenstein’s Monster* of the NHL.

They’ve got Sean Bergenheim(1G, 0A, even), late of the Lightning and acquired seemingly because Florida had some money to burn. There he is at right. Good photo of him methinks.

Kris Versteeg (3G, 4A, even) is the real threat. Small for a forward, Versteeg is a growing threat at only 25 years old, and he’s probably the best forward they’ll dress on Tuesday night. No insults or jokes– he’s pretty good. But smells like cabbage.

There’s youngster D-man Dmitry Kulikov (0G, 1A, minus-two) who may become a force as he matures, but for now we’re just including him ’cause he’s Russian. And Erik Gudbranson (nil, nil, even), who did this to Steve Downie the other night and has our gratitude, but otherwise seems like a minor character in a Stieg Larsson book. Mountain of a man though.

Matt Bradley

Okay, let’s have fun now. Last season, Matt Bradley (0G, 0A, minus-1, bloodied) stood up to get some punch and when he got back to his chair, Jay Beagle was in it. Into free agency he went only to find a home in lovely Miami (is it Miami, right?). Matt Bradley probably wouldn’t have DiPietro’d out with Arron Asham, but Jay Beagle probably wouldn’t have spoken out of turn about Alex Semin. Matty reportedly feels bad about the violation of the locker room code, but let’s be real; this wouldn’t have been a big story had not so many people thought it true. Press Secretary C.J Cregg once said something relevant about this on The West Wing: “It’s the classic Washington scandal. We screwed up by telling the truth.”

After missing a huge chunk of last season due to another blood clot fiasco, Tomas Fleischmann (1G, 2A, plus-2) relocated from Colorado to Florida and is expected to have the bounceback season he deserves. We should be all just be glad that he is healthy and will be all up in our faces Tuesday night. No one tell him that we’ve replaced him with another Tomas because that would be weird.

Jose Theodore

And then there’s Jose Theodore, sporting a 920 SV% and one mean head of hair. Jose took bullets for his team on Monday night, so it’s unlikely we’ll see him dress for Verizon Center. That said, hopefully he’ll skip the baseball cap and let those bangs swing at concordant angles on the bench. Some people thought Theo was of middling talent, and some people obsess over his “I just work here” moment from a few years past. I prefer to think of him as the goalie who stewarded the team through their longest winning streak in history. He probably ain’t playing though, so screw him.

Instead, we’re likely to see rookie Jacob Markstrom. He’s 21 years-old and this could be his first NHL game, so break out the popcorn.

So what are we gonna do when the guys hit the ice? Manners dictate polite applause for their first shifts and then monstrous WOOP‘s every time they touch the puck thereafter. Let ‘em know you remember them, you love them, and you’re here to watch them get torn apart by your Washington Capitals. Give ‘em a standing O on their way back to the locker rooms, and then pity them quietly for being the Caps’ refuse.

After all, The Florida Panthers are a hair doll– a loosely bound amalgamation of scraps and leavings. With no personality of their own, they’ll mimic the habits of those around them. Like the creepy college roommate who downloads the MP3s you were playing just a day before, the Panthers pull crap like this:

You’ve gotta be kidding me. Powered by xfinity.

Who’s our starting goalie? Dunno, but it won’t be Michal Neuvirth, who is nursing a bruised foot. Will the Caps send in Tomas Vokoun with games against the Flyers and Wings later this week? Or will we see some HOLTBYISMS back at Verizon Center?

UPDATE: Naw, Capitals have recalled Dany Sabourin from Hershey.

Puck drop is a little after 7, so find out then. CSN will have the game, so we’ll probably have a Joe B suit for you.

Go Caps. The real ones.

* Note: Yeah, Frankenstein’s Monster. We’re sticklers for accuracy.

No goal. (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Matt Bradley drops the gloves with Cody McLeod. (Photo credit: Jacquelyn Martin)

EVEN LATER UPDATE 12/12 1PM: Per Bob McKenzie, Alex Semin has been fined for his crosscheck on COL’s John-Michael Liles, and will play tonight against NYR.

UPDATE 12/11 11:50PM: Dmitry Chesnokov heard that Alex Semin will not be suspended.

Let’s get the hell out of town. The Washington Capitals have lost five games in a row, four of them at home base. The Colorado Avalanche brought their fast-paced offense to town as Washington tried to re-awake theirs. Despite showing more effort than in recent games, the Caps failed to stop, drop, shut em’ down, open up shop.

Kevin Shattenkirk got lucky with an early goal that Michal Neuvirth should have stopped. Mike Knuble responded with his 250th career goal, a typical Knuble score from inches out. Tom Poi was woefully out of position, allowing Ryan Wilson to waltz in and score the go-ahead goal. Piling on was Paul Stasny, who converted on the powerplay. Matt Hendricks launched a comeback with a no-looker from the crease, but the home team ran out of time. Avs beat Caps 3-2.

• The Capitals led in scoring chances 25 to 13. Is this whole slump due to bad luck?
• Alex Semin lost his temper. Sasha Minor retaliated for a crosscheck by dangerously crosschecking John-Michael Liles in the back of the head. Semin earned his 5-minute major and his game misconduct. We expect to see a suspension from Colin Campbell, which would also be earned. Though, then again, extra punishment from the league is always unpredictable.

• Former Av Matt Hendricks was your player of the game. He was on ice for 8 5v5 chances for and zero against. He scored the best-looking goal of the night, and he delivered some mondo hits. Maybe he was playing hard to show up his former teammates, those ungrateful bastards. Or maybe he really is this versatile of a player.
• Hey, Tomas Fleischmann. Good to see ya, pal. How ya been? Cool. Hey, you know you contributed absolutely nothing to this game, right? The Capitals were literally ignoring you in those post-whistle scrums.
• Big ups to Mike Knuble for recording his 250th career goal. And how appropriate for that 250th to be a nasty deflection from point blank.
• Eric Fehr has been on ice for one goal for in the last twelve games. Benching is imminent.
• Alex Ovechkin played all but 18 seconds of the Capitals 5:30 ice time. In that time, the Capitals had only one scoring chance. The powerplay is still disappointing.
• Shattenkirk. No note. Just a funny name.

Joe B's suit of the night > Alan May's

That the Capitals are enthused about the game is baffling. Post-game interviews, particularly the ones with Bruce Boudreau and Mike Knuble, were pretty mellow. Well yes, the offense played better at even strength, but the power play has been struggling for far too long. Unless we can consider Matt Hendricks our new man-advantage scoring agent, this team still has a serious problem. You can’t say that this team has hit rock bottom until they start heading in the other direction. And to me, that means a win.

See you tomorrow night at MSG. Maybe the change of venue will do some good.

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg

Either the rumors were true, or even a blind squirrel bumps into a nut sometimes. In the end, Tomas Fleischmann is now a mile high, traded to the Colorado Avalanche for blueliner Scott Hannan.

If we look at the trade from Flash’s point of view, it’s a great move. He goes to a team that wants him, most likely to fill a Top 6 spot left vacant when leading scorer Chris Stewart broke his hand in a fight with Minnesota’s Kyle Brodziak. Sometimes a change of scenery is just what a player needs to get back on track. RMNB wishes him the very best.

The move makes sense for the Capitals for a variety of reasons:

1. The price for shutdown defensemen only goes up the closer you get to the trade deadline. We learned this past summer that “shutdown” defensemen are in hot demand like iPads in the holiday season. When you are stacked with blue chippers on the blueline and in goal, it makes sense that other teams would hold your feet to the fire.

2. Chemistry developed earlier is better than chemistry developed later. Hannan has a jump start on this already, having played in the AHL and NHL with Matt Bradley and with Hendricks on Colorado last year. Coach Boudreau has the time he needs to find Hannan the right partner, whether that’s part of the top pair with Mike Green or bottom pair with Poti or Erskine.

3. Clear upgrade on the blueline. Sloan, while good as a fill in, is not dependable enough to get a sweater every night. Plus, this move gets the Caps another step closer to a sustained playoff run, and that’s where Hannan shined last year. Hannan, along with Kyle Quincey, spent 85% of their even strength time against the Sharks’ top two lines, and posted the best chances differential among all Colorado defenders.

4. Everything else remains intact. The Caps keep their draft picks, prospects and players essential to their long term plans (Carlzner, Neuvirth, etc.) without compromising future cap space. Fleischmann, while considered a top six forward by some, just wasn’t. At least not yet. Besides, his linemates do better away from him than they did with him.

5. Maybe Mathieu Perreault gets a shot. To me, the move signifies that Marcus Johannson is going to be given every opportunity to solidify himself in the second center spot. That leaves the third pivot open for Mathieu Perreault, who currently has 8 goals and 16 assists in 16 games played for the Hershey Bears. If we translate that to the NHL level, he would project to have roughly 4 goals and 8 assists in 16 NHL games – an upgrade over Flash’s 10 points in 23 games.

It may have taken months, but it looks like the Caps got the better end of this deal. George McPhee is certainly excited. Leave your thoughts on the trade in the comments below.

The Caps blew out Tampa Bay 6 to nothing, and– just when we thought sitting Fleischmann was the answer the lines were clicking– we got more change. Admit it: you thought line combos were chosen using random ping pong ball selection. How else can you explain the constant Changing Of The Linemates?

This week we’ll take a quick look at how the top 6 line combos and blueline pairings are doing at even strength and how the goalies are doing overall, with respect to scoring chances. In the following weeks (as I get more comfortable with SQL) I will add goals scored for and against. For now it’s just scoring chances. I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

SCF = Scoring chances for
SCA = Scoring chances against

Top Six Forwards

The Cadillac of Caps top lines (Knuble-Backstrom-Ovechkin) is probably the cause of all the shuffling, but they get the job done when it comes to scoring chances, putting a little more than 6 out of every 10 in the Caps’ favor when the unit is on the ice. Swapping out Semin for Knuble lowers the scoring chance percentage, but there is no doubt it ratchets up the goals-for tallies. The Laich-MJ90-Semin line saw some nice chemistry during the 6-0 blowout of Tampa Bay. Maybe we’ll get a chance to see it again.

Defensive Pairings

You expect the reigning Plus/Minus leader in the NHL and the two-time Norris candidate to get things done on the defensive side, but Carlzner is stealing the show. Not only are they used by Coach Boudreau as his shutdown pair for the opposition’s top line, but they are making sure the scoring chances stay on the Caps’ side of the ledger.

Goalies

Semyon Varlamov seems to have healed his groin, putting the NHL back on notice as to why he changed his sweater number from 40 to 1.

His 5v5 scoring chance save percentage is stellar at .925 and his overall SC save% of .882 is well above the Mendoza line of .850. I had said earlier this year that Neuvirth deserved to be the number one goalie to start the season, now I think it is a dead heat.

Ovechkin is out of sorts. Does anyone know why? (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Semin cooled off, Marcus Johansonn started to heat up, Ovechkin is un-Ovechkin-y, and we saw the Caps get shut out for the first time in almost a year. Quite an up-and-down week. Despite it all, scoring chances are once again preserved for posterity.

I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

Coach Boudreau used every line combo imaginable this week (except for the much ballyhooed DJ King-Steckel-Ovechkin line), so I thought we would look at expected scoring chance percentage (SC%). Scoring chance percentage is the amount of scoring chances-for (SCF) that go in the Caps favor when a particular player is on the ice. For example, if a skater is on the ice for 6 scoring chances-for and only 4 against his  SC% would be 60% (6 chances for divided by all 10 chances when on ice). If we know how often a player is deployed in the offensive zone, we can calculate their expected scoring chance percentage. Then it is simple subtraction: subtract the actual from the expected and we can see each player’s true efficiency. All numbers are for even strength only.

TOI = Time on ice
SCF = Scoring chances for
OffZone% = Offensive zone start percentage
ExpSC% = Expected scoring chance percentage
Delta = Actual SC% – Expected SC%
Dangerous% = Shots directed at net (including missed and blocked shots) that come from dangerous scoring areas. For forwards I look at shots for, for defensemen shots against.

Forwards

The reason for my man-crush on Boyd Gordon should be clear by now, but if it isn’t consider that he starts in the offensive zone only 43% of the time. He should have an expected scoring chance percentage of 47%, but instead it is second highest among forwards at 57%. In less math-speak, he is doing way better than he should when it comes to putting scoring chances in the Caps’ favor. And by “way better” I mean a team best.

Whiskey tango foxtrot Ovechkin? I wish I had last year’s data as a reference, but I am sure we can agree: something’s not right. You would think he would be driving the Caps’ chances in their favor (at least as much as Boyd Gordon or Tomas Fleischmann) but it just seems like he is struggling. Feel free to give your thoughts as to why in the comments. Creativity counts.

Marcus Johansonn is starting to trend in the right direction, and he leads the Caps with scoring chances from dangerous areas. As HCBB’s trust in him grows and he gets more time with better teammates, look for his boxcar stats to uptrend as well.

Defensemen

Carlzner is starting to get stuff done. They are driving scoring chances in the right direction, and keeping shots-against from dangerous scoring areas to respectable levels.

John Erskine, despite being used mostly in the defensive zone, is also doing his part to exceed expectations in regards to scoring chances.

Tom Poti looks to be struggling with his injury even when he is on the ice. Starting 6 out of every 10 times in the offensive zone should allow him to keep the puck going in the right direction, but instead he has the worst delta on the team. Get well soon, Poti.

Goalies

Not the best of weeks for Braden Holtby where bad play and soft goals got him pulled after against ATL. That 5v5 scoring chance save percentage is atrocious, despite the Caps defense giving him better support on shots coming from dangerous scoring areas, so don’t be surprised if he is sent back down to Hershey. Good news is you can still follow him on our sister site, Sweetest Hockey on Earth.

A despondent Braden Holtby looks on after giving up the third goal of the night. (Photo credit: John Bazemore)

Ovi reacts after missing a shot in the second period. (Photo credit: John Bazemore)

When Joe B. and Locker finished their pre-game intros and CSN cameras zoomed in for the opening face-off, it was hard not to notice the rows and rows of empty seats in Phillips Arena. The Capitals, seemingly aware of their surroundings, lacked energy and focus and proceeded to play down to their opponents. After giving up three quick goals to Ben Eager, Nik Antropov, & Evander Kane respectively, Braden Holtby was quickly summoned to the Caps bench by an enraged Bruce Boudreau.

Michal Neuvirth was steady in relief, but unfortunately for the Capitals, they were never able to locate their game after the switch. The offense was blessed with quality scoring chance after quality scoring chance but all resulted either in a missed shot, a ping off the post, or a solid save by Thrashers goaltender Ondrej Pavelec.

Evil cheeseburger-eater Dustin Byfuglien then put the game officially out of reach, closing the second period with a nifty short-side wrist shot past Neuvy. And let’s not even talk about that Burmistrov goal. I’m still angry at Jeff Schultz, who stopped skating, got deked out of his jockstrap and resembled a giant, awkward pylon on the play. Whatever. Thrashers win 5-0.

Your Friday night bullets:

• How bad was Braden Holtby‘s night? He gave up three goals on five shots, and left the ice with a humbling .400 save percentage. The second goal he wandered way too far out of his crease, and paid the price. Nik Antropov took advantage of the broken play, and slipped a backhander past a kneeling Jeff Schultz, into a yawning net. Clearly frazzled, Holtby gave up another 15 seconds later. Caps-killer Evander Kane circled the net, saw the rookie goalie briefly glance to the opposite side of the ice, and proceeded to let go a no-angled shot from the corner. The puck somehow found a hole through Holtby’s pads and…
• Out came Lil’ Michal Neuvirth! Neuvy certainly did his best to try and get the Caps back into the game, stopping 29 of the 31 shots he faced. Really, if only the Caps could have scored a goal in that danged second period… I’m kidding.
• Tyler Sloan was um, terrible. He had 7 starts in the offensive zone (during 5v5), most of any skater, and still was on the ice for 4 goals against on 5 chances against. His turnover in the neutral zone also led directly to Byfuglien’s sixth tally of the year, the most amongst NHL defensemen.

• Another ugh for Schultz after I just relived video of that Burmistrov goal. What was that? It’s fine if you get walked. That happens. But don’t give up on the play! It’s embarrassing.
• Alex Semin‘s nine-game scoring streak is now kaput. Peace, yo.
• Mike Knuble just can’t buy a break. First, Alex Ovechkin hits him with a sweet pass, he’s wide open, and his shot clangs off the post. Next, the dude’s downlow creating havoc, being all Kanooblian, and Eric Fehr hits him square in the face with a shot. Knuble went to the bench clutching his bloody chin, then to the locker room for repairs, and did not return. Corey Masisak asked Bruce about the injury and it sounds like he may miss some games.
• Mike Green got The Palm tonight. For what you ask? He had two blocked shots and really “gave it his all.”
• Marcus Johansson sure skates fast. Still waiting for everything else.
• Seeing Flash and Byfuglien forechecking along the boards was probably the only comical part of the night. On one exchange during the third period, Dustin shoved Fleischmann from the corner boards to the faceoff circle. That’s Charmin soft.
• Alex Ovechkin was probably the third best Alex out on the ice tonight and has now had consecutive iffy games. That DVD sure is good, though!!

Joe B's suit of the night.

One of the things about the Caps that I love is that no opposing team’s lead is ever really safe. Last year, the Capitals offense came back from several three goal deficits and seemed capable of magical things. Tonight, however, they wilted. They looked defeated. At no point during the game did they ever have momentum. No one stepped up. They just took their beating and emotionlessly walked out of the Phillips Arena’s doors with their heads held low.

Tomorrow night, they will play at home against Conference foes the Philadelphia Flyers, where they’re 10-1-0. Will Bruce tinker with the line-up? Will our heros return with swagger. Does Mike Knuble still even have a chin?

I suppose we’ll find out tomorrow. Until then, enjoy your weekend!

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg.