Despite a painfully slow start, Alex Ovechkin has had one of the greatest seasons of his career. He scored more goals than any other player, earning his third Rocket Richard trophy in six seasons. He finished third in the league in points. He led his team to a division title after being mired in dead last a month into the season. Ovechkin’s play is the reason the Capitals are in the playoffs — without his success, this would have been a lost season for Washington.

Since he has been so crucial to the accomplishments of his team, he deserves consideration for the Hart Trophy, which is awarded to the guy “judged to be the most valuable to his team.” However, many of the writers who vote for the award are casting their ballots for somebody else — namely Sidney Crosby or John Tavares.

The Great One, Wayne Gretzky, disagrees with that.

Monday afternoon, Gretzky called in to Hockey Night in Canada’s afternoon radio show hosted by Rob Pizzo and Elliotte Friedman. Wayne talked about what teams he thinks will succeed in the playoffs and gave Ovechkin the ultimate endorsement, naming him and Jonathan Toews as the two people he’d like to see win the Hart trophy. He also praised the skills of first year head coach Adam Oates.

Gretzy on his MVP choice:

Listen, first of all, had Crosby not been hurt, I think he would have been a unanimous choice. And he still may win the award. He was so remarkable in the games he played. I don’t think anyone’s going to question it if Jonathan Toews wins [the Hart]. He takes faceoffs, he kills penalties. On the power play he’s an instrumental leader for that hockey club. He’s sorta the heartbeat of that team. He does it in a classy way. He’s just a wonderful player. So he’s going to get a lot of votes.

From my side of things, I look at Alexander Ovechkin. You look at the Hart trophy and what it means. And it means what player could you take away from that team and they wouldn’t have the success they had. And I think that people forget that he had three coaches in a 12 month period and I think that’s difficult for any player — especially an offensive-minded player. He struggled without question the first 20 games. And I think the final 28 games he finally got his confidence back. I don’t think there’s any coincidence that they were below .500, then as soon as he’s able to play at the level he’s capable of, they became a different team. I don’t think anybody’s going to be disappointed if either Toews or Ovechkin wins. Those would be my two guys that I would vote for. If Columbus made the playoffs, obviously that goaltender deserved a lot more attention than he would get.

Gretzky on how much credit Oates deserves:

What he’s done there is tremendous. And you have to make a decision as an organization, okay, “are we going to hang our hat on number eight” or are we going to say “time to move on, trade him” for two or three or four players that are a little bit more defensive minded. Adam Oates came in and said “he’s going to be my guy” and in fairness to Ovechkin, he’s boughten in to what Adam also wants. It’s been a good two-way street. Obviously, Ovechkin has loved playing for Oates and Oates has done a tremendous job coaching Ovechkin.

He’s a great player. He’s a superstar and it was just a matter of him getting his confidence back again and enjoying the game. I don’t care who you are. If you lose your confidence as a professional athlete, it’s very difficult to play. And so obviously he has it back and listen, the year he’s had and the finish he’s had, good for him and great for the city of Washington. It’s been exciting to watch.

Thanks to @nogoodtrying138 for first tweeting about the interview.

Photo credit: Kris Connor

Alex Ovechkin, sporting 10 stitches on his forehead after taking an errant puck to the face during Caps practice, traveled into DC this afternoon to celebrate his new wax immortality.

Surrounded by children from the Fort Dupont Ice Hockey Club, who were all rocking The Great 8′s signature gap-toothed smile, Ovechkin unveiled the figure to a horde of media and a few hundred passersby. To the surprise of no one, the wax figure’s resemblance to the Capitals captain is uncanny.

And rightly so. Ovechkin spent hours over the summer allowing studio artists from Madame Tussauds to take more than 250 precise measurements and photographs, capturing the two-time MVP from every angle. The artists then began work on the figure in early July and finished it just a few weeks ago. Ovi donated his Capitals uniform, pads and equipment– in which the figure is dressed– to ensure its authenticity.

Sure the Capitals are undefeated and sit atop everyone’s power rankings this week, but here’s one more accolade: Ovechkin is the second hockey player to ever be immortalized in wax. The other one was Wayne Gretzy. In your face, Crosby.

Additional Photos

Aww. Ovi poses with kids from the Fort Dupont Ice Hockey Club. (Photo credit: Madame Tussauds’s Facebook page)

Wax Ovi: Accurate to the point where it is almost scary. (Photo credit: Capitals Overtime)

Ovi and his father Mikail pose with the new wax figure. (Photo credit: @christinesimpsn)

Ovi does a double-take after looking at his new replica statue. (Photo credit: Kris Connor)

A close-up of Alex Ovechkin’s wax head before being colored. (Photo credit: Madame Tussauds’s Facebook page)

Caps365 Video

Photo credit: Chris Gordon

A 24-year-old Mike Knuble, then a promising forward prospect, played nine games for the Detroit Red Wings during the 1996-97 season.

Players who were still playing during Knuble’s first season in the NHL include Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Mark Messier, Dino Ciccarelli, Brian Leetch, Grant Fuhr, and Ron Hextall.

Just days after Knuble’s first game, Phil Collins announced that he was leaving Genesis to focus on his solo career, M.C. Hammer wasn’t yet bankrupt, and it would be months before The Daily Show debuts on Comedy Central.

I guess what I am trying to say is Knuble is old getting up there in years, but don’t tell him that.

“I’m out there playing for another deal,” he said. “I’m not riding off into the sunset. I want to make that point clear to everybody. This is no farewell song.”

I agree with him, but it is one of the last tracks on a darn good Greatest Hits album.

Players like Knuble who are productive over the age of 35 tend to keep their production rates in the league relatively stable as they age. Knuble was also a late bloomer: He had averaged eight goals per season his first three years and has almost tripled that production in his last three.

Using wingers who played at 39 years old post-lockout, we can make an educated guess on Knuble’s production for 2011-12. I will caution you that the entire player pool from which to draw from is limited, containing only Bill Guerin, Brendan Shanahan, Mark Recchi, and Teemu Selanne.

Using these players as a guide, we can speculate that Knuble will play 75 games, score 34 points (21 G and 13A) while taking 188 shots on goal.

Here are some probabilities for goals and point scored:

“It’s going to be a challenging year, definitely, with more competition,” cautioned Knuble. “Nothing is guaranteed.”

We couldn’t agree more.

Could Ovi join Maurice Richard as one of five players to score 50 in 50?

Alex Ovechkin kept his pace for an 82-goal season intact against the Islanders which got me thinking: is 50 in 50 even close to a reality?

50 goals in the first 50 games is a rare feat indeed. It has only been done by five players: Maurice Richard in 1945. Mike Bossy in 1982. Lemieux in 1989. Brett Hull did it twice, and in back-to-back seasons no less (1990-1 and 1991-2). The Great One accomplished the feat three times: 1982, 1984 and again in 1985. So why not Ovechkin?

To estimate his chances I will use something called a Monte Carlo simulation. It starts with me using the shots on goal and shooting percentage for Ovechkin since he made his debut in the league 5 years ago to the last game of the regular season in 2009-10. Only regular season games were counted. For instance, he has only been held to zero shots on goal 3 out of 396 games, or .76% of the time. He has shot 20% in 32 of his regular season games, or 8.08% of the time.

Using this data, and Excel’s random number generator, I simulated goal-scoring totals for 50 games. Then, I ran this 50-game season 10,000 times and calculated the results.

Before I reveal the chances, take a guess at what you think they are. I’ll wait….

Ok, now that you have your guess, let’s look at the numbers.

Based on 10,000 50-game seasons in my cold, heartless math universe, Ovechkin will average 26 plus or minus 6 goals. He only hit the magical 50+ mark two times out of 10,000 – once with 58 goals and another with 53. He just missed the mark once with 49 goals in 50 games and 48 goals 4 other times.

For kicks I also ran this for an 82-game season when I saw NHL Hot Stove predicted Ovechkin would only score 37 goals. For an 82-game season, I have Ovechkin scoring on average 42 goals, plus or minus 8.

So ~68% of the time he should be between 34 and 50 goals. A 37-goal season looks light. I would take the over.

Let’s analyze the psychology of each type of fan.

Washington Capitals fan, neophyte

Possibly unaware that Jaromir Jagr ever donned the Caps red and white black and brown, the Caps bandwagon limits its gaze across the International Dateline to Russia. Russia sports no fewer than six former Washington Capitals, and their play is (supposed to be) as aggressive as the home team’s. Canada sacrificed any chance of garnering the Caps newbie’s support when Steve Yzerman passed over @GreenLife52. Team USA stirs up some base patriotic vitriol, but the unfamiliar roster and lack of hype surrounding the team undermines any appeal to the Johnny-come-lately Caps fan.

Washington Capitals fan, with an autographed Dale Hunter jersey

The Caps fan of the Bondra era still mourns the Cup-round blowout of 1998 and is filled to the brim with bile for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Because of this long-brewing rivalry, the ancient Caps fan, peering over his 401k report towards a standard-definition television, cannot bring himself to root for any team containing a Penguin. Canada and Russia lose any chance at garnering his favor because of Crosby and Malkin, respectively. Grandpa Caps fan somehow overrides his Penguinphobia when considering Brooks Orpik’s presence Team USA; perhaps it’s the dusty memory of Lake Placid 1980 or the manly gristle of Ryan Miller’s unkempt facial hair.

Pittsburgh Penguins fan, there but for the grace of God

The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the most talented teams in the NHL, but their geographical origins have rendered them far flung in the Olympiad. This puts the fans in an awkward position, as they must now reconcile the relative vitality of their favorite players in order to pick a team to root for. Should their allegiances drift above the border to Mike Richards and Sidney Crosby, he of the private jet? Or perhaps Evgeni “Geno” Malkin’s dynamism will excite the inner fan despite his Washingtonian linemates? And then there’s Brooks Orpik sporting the nation’s colors, piggybacking on nationalistic fervor. Frankly, no one’s got it tougher than the Pens fan for the next week.

Gretzky

Gretzky’s rooting for Ovechkin. After that torch-lighting SNAFU, 99 wants nothing to do with his countrymen.

Old-school Puckheads

The hockey faithful from days of yore consider Sidney Crosby to be the second coming of Mario Lemieux. When Jeremy Roenick, who always looks like he has just gotten out of the shower, speaks, the senior hockey fans must be restrained from throwing slippers at their TVs. To this fan, Team USA lacks a marquee name or a hockey pedigree worthy of his support. Nay, the Puckhead’s eyes invariably look to Canada, as surely a decent hockey player could hail from nowhere else. This fan, to the surprise of thinking people everywhere, discusses the gold medal as if has been bequeathed to Canada from on high, and the mountiess need merely show up and claim their prize. Even if this fan played for the Bruins and coached for the Islanders (and beat up a fan with his own shoe), this dude will become his ultimate obsequious self only when speaking in praise of Team Canada.

When March finally arrives, we’ll all need showers.