Photo credit: Chris Carlson

Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings. Here’s Jonathan Coulton’s recap of the Caps road trip in California:

Marcus Johansson scored the night’s first goal, a 2-on-1 set up by Mike Knuble. Kyle Clifford got one past Tomas Vokoun on a rebound to tie it up. Anze Kopitar added to that late in the first period after Brooks Laich was pilfered. Jack freaking Johnson converted a 3-on-1 and then did the freaking Tebow move as if the world didn’t already suck. Then Stoll scored and our eyes started glazing over. Something else happened, but our eyelids were heavy. Johansson looked bored somehow scoring his second of the night.  Kings beat Caps 5-2.

I’m not a religious guy, but I’ve read a few books. Here’s a few verses from Matthew:

And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full. But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.

Make of that what you will.

• Jason Chimera earned a roughing penalty for getting sucker-punched in the face by Willie Mitchell. Some fans said he dived. Jason Chimera doesn’t even dive at the pool; the water runs away from him. The two had a marathon fight in the third that captured the game’s frustration.
• Mike Knuble‘s assist on Mojo’s first goal was his first point since December 9th. That sounds like a long time ago, but Kanoobs only got like four cumulative minutes of ice time since then.
• It sucks to have a big night on a loss, but that’s what Marcus Johansson did. The baby Swede scored the bookends. He had scored 1 goal in the 25 previous games.
• John Carlson had a stinker on Saturday and continued it on Monday. Mostly matched against Kings’ top line along with Karl Alzner, the pair were again trumped– seeing three goals against. These guys are still very young, but they’re getting big-boy minutes (21:54 and 17:36). How long will Dale Hunter let that continue if they keep struggling?
• Tomas Vokoun served well in the last two weeks, but he was a factor in allowing the least offensive team in the league to strike 4 times. Michal Neuvirth served the final frame, and isn’t he just adorable making superhuman poke check saves to stop breakaways?
• We spent the whole game trying to figure out what band gives Caps writer Mike Vogel hives. That was way more entertaining than the game. I still think it’s Poison.
• This is your Alex Semin penalty bullet. Yawn.
• How badly do the Caps miss Mike Green (groin) and Nick Backstrom (Dave Steckel)?

Joe B suit of the night

This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Kings are the caboose of the NHL when it comes to goals per game. They weren’t supposed to score at all, but the Caps are just plain discombobulated on the road. Anze Kopitar snapped his drought, and the rest of the non-scoring Kings did the same.

Don’t think this was just a scoreboard thing. L.A. vastly outplayed D.C. in all facets, owning the puck with a plus-20 Corsi. An awful end to an awful road trip by an awful road team. (Next four games are at home…)

Two standings points were drastically needed in Cali– particularly while the Eastern conference is constricting. But the Caps played listless, miserable hockey. Even down three goals in the third, the Capitals couldn’t be bothered to even shoot a puck on net for long stretches.

We’ve got the Penguins on Wednesday. They’re not the Penguins you remember though; they’re banged up as bad as any team in the league– missing 3 of their 4 best offensive players. Should be a… well, I dunno. A hockey game?

Video highlights from Caps at Kings:

“We need a blueliner” is a typical Caps Fan’s lament this offseason (second only to DAMMIT!) and recently unrestricted free agent defenseman Willie Mitchell has been rumored to be in the Capital’s cross-hairs. Mitchell has been training and skating for 18 days and is finally symptom-free after his latest concussion – all fueling speculation that his signing is imminent.

But would Wilie Mitchell a good fit on the Capitals’ blueline?

No conversation on Mitchell can start without first addressing his health and the risks that come with signing him. Willie’s latest concussion, his third, caused him to miss almost 6 months – which is much more than the 9 games he missed in 2006 and the 8 games he lost in 2002. Mitchell is also more likely to have a relapse, which calls into question: How will it affect his physical play? If this question was an easy one to answer, the 10 year veteran would have been signed on the first day of free agency this year.

If healthy, Willie Mitchell is one of the better shutdown defensemen in the league and most analysts would quickly pencil him in as a top 4 pairing on the Caps’ Blueline. The problem is: Would it be an upgrade that’s worth the risk?

Behind The Net had an interesting post that tried to solve Defensive Contribution. Essentially, if we subtract Goals Against when the player is off the ice (per 60 minutes) from Goals Against when the player is on the ice (per 60 minutes) we can get an approximation of their defensive contribution after adjusting for Even Strength playing time.

Using this method would put Mitchell (-1.12) behind only current Caps’ defensemen Jeff Schultz (14.68), John Erskine (7.93) and Tom Poti (6.78).

When we analyze the puck possession stat (via CORSI), we notice that Willie Mitchell (-.71) would be in the bottom three in regards to all Caps’s defenseman. Mitchell would only be ahead of Karl Alzner (-2.81) and Tyler Sloan (-3.73). To be fair, Willie started only 43% of the time in the Offensive Zone against the toughest competition VAN opponents had to offer. But even after adjusting his Shot Differential for Quality of Competition and Quality of Teammates he would still only be ahead of Sloan and Alzner.

Looking at the Penalty Kill shows us a totally different picture however. Mitchell would be second in Defensive Contribution (2.53) to only Jeff Schultz (7.63) and slightly ahead of recently departed Shaone Morrisonn (2.40). Adjust PK CORSI numbers for Quality of Competition and Quality of Teammates and Mitchell would lead all Caps blueliners that played 40+ games last year.

Which brings us back to the issue: Do three concussions (or the risk of a 4th) affect Mitchell’s game to the point where he ceases to be an effective Top 4 blueliner? Or is a shutdown defenseman who could upgrade an already weak Penalty Kill unit worth the risk? It’s a tough question to answer.

(Editor’s note: Michael Russo reports:

The former Wild defenseman, I’m told, actually could sign a contract with performance bonuses because he spent 100 days on injured reserve last year — including the playoffs.

Certainly this would help lessen the risk of signing him.)