Protection lists for the upcoming NHL expansion draft were made public on Sunday. There were no surprises on the Caps list. However, due to the fact that the Caps are likely to lose Nate Schmidt or Philipp Grubauer, not a lot of attention was paid to the forwards the Caps protected. It may be a bit of a moot point since the Caps are all but certain to not lose a forward, but examining the Caps’ decision making process here can still be a useful exercise.
Leading up to the release of the protection list, discussion around Caps land and the league seemed to assume the Caps would protect Tom Wilson. And they did. But there’s a reasonable argument to be made that the Caps should have protected Brett Connolly instead.
WinnersView released a video on this topic in the days leading up to the submission of protection lists.
WinnersView makes a compelling argument in favor of protecting Connolly over Wilson.
- Connolly has posted 0.85 goals per 60 at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons, compared to 0.39 by Wilson.
- The advantage in primary points per 60 also goes to Connolly, 1.35 to 0.89.
- Connolly again bests Wilson in relative shot attempt percentage, coming in at plus-2.3 to Wilson’s minus-2.4.
However, there’s also evidence to support the Caps’ decision to protect Wilson.
- Wilson was fourth among all Caps forward with 168 minutes on the penalty kill, only 13 minutes behind Daniel Winnik, who finished second.
- Wilson is coming off of a season in which he posted his best goals per 60 of his career with 0.41.
- In the playoffs, Wilson posted three goals and took Connolly’s spot on the third line.
- There’s potentially a psychological advantage to having a player of Wilson’s style in the lineup. While it’s fair to rebut this by saying that this advantage would show up in outcomes if it was worth anything, and skepticism is totally reasonable on this point, it’s also reasonable to be skeptical that a physical presence like Wilson doesn’t have some sort of positive impact.
There’s reasonable arguments to be made for protecting either player. And, in the end the Caps are unlikely to lose a forward in the expansion draft anyways. But, a closer look shows that the Caps may have protected the wrong forward.
What do you guys think? Which player would you rather the Caps protect?
Headline photo: Patrick Smith
